中航期货橡胶月度报告-20250829

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In August, the three major rubber futures contracts showed a slightly stronger trend with limited gains due to minor improvements in the rubber's fundamentals and a relatively warm macro - environment. The cost of rubber is supported by weather, and the inventory has a slight structural improvement. The downstream tire demand has resilience, but the fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the price will fluctuate within a range, with external macro - disturbances likely to widen the price fluctuation range [6][27] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In August, the main contracts of natural rubber (RU), 20 - numbered rubber (NR), and synthetic rubber (BR) had monthly increases of 3.12%, 3.04%, and 3.66% respectively, with corresponding increases in positions of 56,608 lots, 5,873 lots, and 19,561 lots. The domestic stock market rose unilaterally in August, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation increased. The cost of rubber was supported by weather, the monthly rubber inventory decreased slightly, and the downstream tire demand had resilience [6] 2. Data Analysis - Raw material prices: As of August 28, the glue price in Thailand was 55.45 Thai baht/kg, the cup - glue price was 50.7 Thai baht/kg, the glue price in Yunnan, China was 14,300 yuan/ton, and the raw material price in Hainan was 13,200 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in major producing areas were firm, and the cost support would remain in September due to weather affecting the peak - season output [8] - Imports: In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 47.48 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 360.05 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82%. Thailand's exports decreased significantly, while Vietnam and Laos had obvious increases. Vietnam became the second - largest source country [10] - Inventory: As of August 22, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, general trade spot inventory, and domestic third - party inventory all decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the month but were higher than the same period last year. The overall inventory had a slight structural improvement but still faced greater pressure than last year [13] - Raw material and production cost: In August, the domestic butadiene price fluctuated within a narrow range. The theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber enterprises was 240.4286 yuan/ton, and the loss range fluctuated within a narrow range [15] - Butadiene rubber inventory: As of August 29, the total inventory of butadiene rubber sample production and trading enterprises was 3.172 tons, with a small change from the beginning of the month but an increase of 7,370 tons compared to last year. The inventory removal was under pressure due to increased supply [18] - Tire exports: In July 2025, the export volume of China's truck and bus tires reached 45.44 tons, breaking the monthly record for the third time this year. The export volume of passenger car tires was 32.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.78% and a year - on - year increase of 7.20%. However, the export pressure is expected to increase in the fourth quarter [19] - Tire inventory: As of the end of August, the inventory turnover days of all - steel tires were about 39 days, 4 days less than last year, with good inventory removal. The inventory turnover days of semi - steel tires were about 46 days, 4 days more than last year, with slow inventory removal [21] - Tire capacity utilization: As of August 29, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a 5.63% increase from the beginning of the month and a 5.1% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, with little change from the beginning of the month but an 8.73% decrease year - on - year [23] 3. Future Outlook - The macro - environment has limited impact on the commodity market, and the actual improvement of terminal demand needs further observation. The rubber cost is supported by weather, the inventory has a slight structural improvement, and the downstream tire demand may be boosted in the "Golden September and Silver October" season. However, whether the supply - demand relationship can be substantially improved depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory removal speed [27]