钢材月报：行情切换供需逻辑，后市仍有回调空间-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In July, the black series was traded around policies such as "anti-involution" and "capacity reduction", with coking coal being the representative variety. In early August, this trading logic continued. However, as the exchange took measures to cool down the market and there was no significant tightening change at the industrial level, the market gradually switched to the industrial logic. In August, steel products were relatively weak in the black sector and led the decline [3]. - From the supply-demand perspective, downstream demand remains weak, but steel mills still have production enthusiasm supported by positive profits. The supply-demand contradiction may further intensify in the later stage, and it may be necessary for steel mills to enter the loss range to force a decline in production to relieve the contradiction. Policy-wise, after the introduction of the steel industry's stable growth policy by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the policy vacuum period will follow, and the driving force from macro and industry policies will come to an end. In terms of the market, the macro narrative of the black series will tend to be dull later, and there is still room for a correction in the market under the supply-demand logic [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In August, the market switched from the "anti-involution" logic to the industrial logic. In the first half of the month, macro sentiment and policy expectations still strongly supported the market, especially for coking coal, which returned to the late-July high. However, rebar showed obvious weakness and had a weak rebound. Later, market sentiment gradually cooled, and steel futures continued to weaken under the pressure of the weak industrial reality. The rapid increase in rebar warehouse receipts also put pressure on the market. At the end of the month, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and others issued a stable growth policy for the steel industry, but the content was of limited positive effect, and the market rose briefly and then declined again [7]. - In August, the main contract of rebar fell 3%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.9%, iron ore rose 4.3%, coke fell 0.4%, and coking coal rose 1.3% [7]. Currency and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 generally maintained an upward trend, and the M1 - M2 gap continued to widen. - In July, the negative increment of social financing was 1.13 trillion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock continued to rise, but the year-on-year difference between social financing and M2 slightly continued to decline [10]. Price Index - In July, the CPI was 0, down 0.1% from June; the PPI was -3.6, unchanged from the previous month, and the deflationary environment remained unchanged. - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3, down 0.4 month-on-month, lower than market expectations [13]. Steel Monthly Data - From January to July, the crude steel output decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a state of production reduction. - The year-on-year decline in pig iron output was 1.3%, significantly lower than that of crude steel, indicating a decrease in the scrap addition ratio in the converter process. - The increase in steel exports was significant. From January to July, steel exports increased by 6.75 million tons, and billet exports increased by 5.64 million tons [14]. Weekly Data of Five Major Steel Products - As of August 29, 2025, the total output of the five major steel products was 884,610 tons, an increase of 6,550 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.74%. The total consumption was 858,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1.03%. The total inventory was 1.468 million tons, an increase of 26,840 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.08% [15]. Steel Production - Last year, from July to September, steel production decreased significantly due to the loss of blast furnace profits. However, since this year, steel mills have had good profits and high production enthusiasm, and the output of the five major steel products has remained stable. Recently, affected by the military parade, more blast furnaces in some areas have been under maintenance, which may have a certain impact on production in the short term [18]. - Currently, blast furnace profits have significantly declined compared to the previous period. The single-ton profit of rebar has dropped from the previous 200 - 300 yuan to 100 - 200 yuan, and the profit of hot-rolled coil is generally higher than that of rebar. The profit of electric furnaces improved temporarily during the previous steel price increase, but recently the profit has declined again, and the profit at off-peak electricity has fallen back to near the break-even point [19]. Steel Demand - The demand side is relatively dull, and the trading volume of construction steel has remained at the 100,000 - ton level without improvement [40]. - From January to July, the newly started area of real estate decreased by 19.5%, with a 15% decrease in July and a 9% decrease in June. From January to July, land purchase fees decreased by 8.9%, and the construction area decreased by 9.2%. Data shows that the demand for housing construction is still difficult to improve significantly in the later stage [44]. - The cumulative year-on-year decrease in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 4.4%, and the cumulative year-on-year decrease in the land transaction area in 100 cities was 8.1% [47]. - In July, the cement delivery volume was relatively stable but lower than the same period last year. The concrete delivery volume remained stable, similar to the same period last year [50]. - From January to July, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate decreasing by 1.2% compared to January - June. From January to July, infrastructure investment increased by 7.3%, with the growth rate decreasing by 1.6% compared to January - June. The growth rate of manufacturing investment also declined month-on-month [53]. - From January to July, the country issued 2.78 trillion yuan of new special bonds, with 616.9 billion yuan issued in July. It is expected to issue 1.43 trillion yuan in the third quarter, with an annual target of 4.5 trillion yuan [56]. - The consumption of cold - rolled coil and medium - thick plate was the highest in the same period [58]. - From January to July, automobile sales reached 18.27 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12%. Among them, exports were 4.17 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%; domestic sales were 14.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10%. From January to July, air - conditioner production increased by 5.1% year-on-year, refrigerator production increased by 0.9%, and washing - machine production increased by 9.4%. The export of household appliances still maintained positive growth. From January to June, refrigerator exports increased by 2% year-on-year, air - conditioner exports increased by 4.1%, and washing - machine exports increased by 5.3% [62]. - As domestic steel prices have declined, the price difference between domestic and foreign steel products has recently widened again [65]. Steel Inventory - In August, the rebar basis maintained a strong trend. Currently, the basis of the October contract exceeds 150, at a relatively high level in the same period. However, even though the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, rebar warehouse receipts are still increasing rapidly, indicating great pressure on spot sales [79]. - The hot - rolled coil basis is relatively stable. The basis of the October contract is also at a relatively high level in the same period, and the basis of the January contract is neutral [83]. - The rebar 10 - 1 spread operated at a low level in August. The weakness of the spot market and a large number of warehouse receipts put pressure on the near - month contract, but the current spread is already at the lowest level in recent years in the same period, and the room for further decline is limited [89]. - The hot - rolled coil 10 - 1 spread has strengthened and has shown a contango structure [93].