沥青月报：基本面边际转弱，关注成本端的变化-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In August, the asphalt market showed a situation of weak supply and demand. The weakening asphalt cracking spread led to a decline in production, and heavy rainfall affected terminal construction, keeping social inventory at a high level. Geopolitical factors drove oil prices, but the market was desensitized to unfulfilled sanctions. With the asphalt demand ending and no seasonal increase in supply, the market lacks clear direction. The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate around crude oil, with limited upside potential for oil prices due to long - term supply surplus expectations, but supported by shale oil costs and geopolitical disturbances. The price is expected to continue a wide - range oscillatory trend, and the BU2510 contract can be monitored in the range of 3400 - 3630 yuan/ton [68]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In August, the asphalt futures price showed a weakening trend. The asphalt fundamentals had characteristics of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The output increased with the rising refinery operating rate, while demand weakened due to heavy rainfall. The social inventory remained at a high level, and the weakening fundamentals and downward cost drivers jointly led to the weakening of the asphalt futures price [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - Geopolitical Factors: The US - Russia "Putin - Trump meeting" in August initially alleviated market concerns about supply shortages, causing the risk premium of crude oil to decline rapidly. Subsequently, Trump's threat of sanctions reignited market concerns about supply disruptions, supporting oil prices to some extent. However, due to the non - implementation of previous sanctions, the market was desensitized, and the upside space for oil prices was limited. The Russia - Ukraine conflict is difficult to resolve in the short term, and geopolitical uncertainties will continuously interfere with crude oil supply expectations [8]. - US Economic Data: The US July non - farm payrolls data was lower than expected, and the data for May and June were revised downward. After the release of the employment data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the next meeting increased. The July CPI data was generally in line with expectations, with the core CPI reaching the highest level since February [11]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - OPEC+: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in September, with a production adjustment of 547,000 barrels per day. The market has fully priced in the production increase, but the focus is on the speed and scale of implementation. It is expected that the production increase will be realized by the end of the fourth quarter. Kazakhstan failed to effectively implement production cuts in July, which may lead to the ineffectiveness of the production cut agreement among OPEC+ members and raise concerns about internal price wars [13][14][15]. - Supply Forecasts by Institutions: In August, IEA, EIA, and OPEC had different views on global crude oil supply and demand growth expectations. IEA raised the supply growth forecast by 400,000 barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 19,000 barrels per day, holding a pessimistic outlook. EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts, expecting an improvement in demand due to the easing of global trade tensions [17]. - Domestic Asphalt Supply: In August, the domestic asphalt cumulative output was 2.45 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 tons, or 3.9%. The operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 29.3% as of August 27th, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous statistical period and 3.7 percentage points from the same period last month. The decline in cracking spread and heavy rainfall affected refinery production and operating rates [20][29]. - Domestic Asphalt Demand: In August, the domestic asphalt shipment volume was 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 77,000 tons. The weekly shipment volume increased after the rainfall ended. As of August 29th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 17.14%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9 percentage points, but the long - term demand growth space is limited [30][33]. - Trade: In July, the domestic asphalt imports were 380,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 16.53%. The cumulative imports from January to July were 2.1055 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.50%. The exports in July were 55,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26,200 tons. The cumulative exports from January to July were 334,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 46.45% [40][43]. - Inventory: As of August 29th, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 674,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 42,000 tons and a decrease of 26,000 tons from the same period last month. The social inventory was 1.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,000 tons and a decrease of 73,000 tons from the same period last month. The social inventory was still at a high level [52][59]. - Price Spreads: As of August 29th, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 593.1 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 118.4 yuan/ton. The asphalt basis was 197 yuan/ton, and as of August 25th, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 54.25. The asphalt cracking spread showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the basis first weakened and then strengthened, indicating weak demand support for prices [66]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In August, the domestic asphalt market had a weak supply - demand situation. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate around crude oil prices, with a wide - range oscillatory trend. The BU2510 contract can be monitored in the range of 3400 - 3630 yuan/ton [68].