Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-29 11:18Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the soda ash futures declined by 2.26%, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, while the glass futures rose by 0.77%, presenting an overall fluctuating upward trend [6]. - For soda ash, the domestic production rate and output are expected to decline, but the short - term market supply remains ample. The demand is stable, and the price will continue to face pressure, though there may be variables with anti - involution speculation. For glass, the supply is at a low level, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, and the inventory is in a fluctuating de - stocking trend, with a possible restocking market next week [6]. - The recommended trading range for SA2601 contract is 1260 - 1340, with a stop - loss range of 1240 - 1360. For FG2601, the recommended operating range is 1130 - 1200, and the stop - loss range is 1100 - 1230 [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: Soda ash futures decreased by 2.26% this week, with a first - rising - then - falling trend. Glass futures increased by 0.77%, showing an overall fluctuating upward trend. The soda ash price rose in the first half of the week due to maintenance news and Shanghai's real - estate relaxation news, but declined in the second half due to the spot price. The glass price rose in the first half but fell later due to high inventory and doubts about demand [6]. - Market Outlook: For soda ash, the supply may decline as the production rate and output are falling, and maintenance is expected to increase. The demand is stable, with a slight increase from photovoltaic glass. The inventory is decreasing, but the de - stocking process may be repeated. For glass, the supply is at a low level, the real - estate situation is poor, the downstream orders are slightly increasing, and the inventory is in a de - stocking trend with possible fluctuations [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: This week, soda ash futures prices declined, and glass futures prices increased [6]. - Spot Prices and Basis: As of August 28, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1210 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.5 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 101 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1060 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 114 yuan/ton. The soda ash - glass price difference weakened this week and is expected to strengthen next week [14][18][22]. 3. Industry Chain Analysis - Soda Ash Production: As of August 28, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 82.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.17%, and the weekly output was 71.91 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.78%. The profit of soda ash enterprises decreased, and the production is expected to continue to decline next week [28]. - Glass Production: The number of cold - repaired glass production lines decreased by 1. As of August 28, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 223 in production, and 72 cold - repaired. The national float - glass output was 111.7 tons, with no week - on - week change, and the output is expected to remain low next week [40]. - Photovoltaic Glass: As of August 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 68.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%, and the daily melting volume was 88,580 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons/day, both expected to rise slightly next week [44]. - Inventory: As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 188.81 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48%, and the total glass inventory was 62.566 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64%, both expected to continue de - stocking next week [50]. - Downstream Demand: As of August 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.65 days, showing a slight increase but still at a low level [54].