Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-29 11:18Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - face was affected by the Fed's potential interest - rate cut information, and market sentiment was volatile. The short - term market was mainly priced by the industry. With the approaching of the September 3 parade, funds were cautious, and the alloy trended weaker under the weakening of the sector. Silicon manganese was expected to move in a volatile manner [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Macro Aspect: In China, the single - month electricity consumption in August exceeded 1 trillion kWh, and power supply was stable after the peak summer. Multiple small and medium - sized banks in Jiangsu and Nanjing lowered deposit interest rates. From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5175.4%. Overseas, Fed Chairman Powell was open to interest - rate cuts, and some Fed officials supported interest - rate cuts in September [7]. - Supply and Demand: The production of silicon manganese has been on the rise since mid - May. After the recent price increase, the inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 20,000 tons, and the downstream hot metal production was at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 80 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 320 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement and tender price in August increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [7]. - Technical Aspect: The weekly K - line of the silicon manganese main contract was below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: The market was mainly priced by the industry in the short term, and silicon manganese should be treated as moving in a volatile manner [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: As of August 29, the silicon manganese futures contract open interest was 546,000 lots, a decrease of 43,198 lots compared with the previous period. The 1 - 9 contract month spread was 116, an increase of 26 points. As of August 28, the silicon manganese warehouse receipt quantity was 66,783, a decrease of 5,037. The price difference between the silicon manganese and silicon - iron contracts increased by 10 points [13][15]. - Spot Market: As of August 29, the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The basis was - 72 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 points [24]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - Production and Inventory: The production of silicon manganese has been rising since mid - May. The开工 rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 47%, an increase of 0.63%. The daily average production was 30,485 tons, an increase of 315 tons. The weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon manganese was 126,656 tons, an increase of 1.09%, and the weekly supply of national silicon manganese was 213,395 tons, an increase of 1.04%. The inventory has decreased for 8 consecutive weeks to a neutral level [27][32]. - Upstream: As of August 28, the price of South32 South African semi - carbonate lump at Tianjin Port was 34.2 yuan/ton degree, a decrease of 0.6. The electricity price in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia was flat. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 20,000 tons. The spot production cost in the northern region was 5,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20, and the profit was - 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 10. In the southern region, the cost was 6,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20, and the profit was - 525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 [36][42][46]. - Downstream: The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 240,130 tons, a decrease of 620 tons compared with the previous week but an increase of 19,240 tons compared with the same period last year. The silicon manganese tender price of HBIS in August was 6,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared with July [50].