BOCOM International·2025-08-29 11:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 80.84, reflecting a potential downside of 8.3% from the current price of HKD 88.15 [1][10][7]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 revenue and profit were generally in line with expectations, but the guidance for Q3 was below market expectations, indicating short-term demand pressures [2][7]. - The average selling price per vehicle decreased by 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, which was slightly better than anticipated due to promotional efforts to clear old inventory [7]. - The company is facing competitive pressures and promotional challenges that may continue to erode sales and pricing, particularly for its L series vehicles [7]. - The forecast for vehicle deliveries in Q3 is between 90,000 to 95,000 units, which represents a significant quarter-on-quarter decline [7]. - The report suggests that the company's ability to stabilize in Q4 will depend on the ramp-up of the i8 model and market feedback on the i6 model [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 123.85 billion in 2023, RMB 144.46 billion in 2024, and a decline to RMB 123.19 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 173.5% in 2023 but a decrease of 14.7% in 2025 [6][11]. - Net profit is expected to decline significantly from RMB 11.70 billion in 2023 to RMB 5.26 billion in 2025, with a corresponding drop in earnings per share from RMB 5.95 to RMB 2.64 [6][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to rise from 13.6 in 2023 to 30.6 in 2025, indicating a potential increase in valuation despite declining profits [6][11]. Stock Performance - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 6.17%, with a 52-week high of HKD 128.70 and a low of HKD 71.90 [4][10]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 27.49 million shares, indicating active trading interest [4].