降息预期继续升温

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of interest rate cuts continues to rise. The market focuses on the Fed's interest rate cut and independence issues. Nvidia strengthens the AI demand expectation, providing a positive outlook for copper demand. However, the current copper price is approaching the resistance level, and a correction should be watched out for [1] - Near the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", there is support below the market. The SHFE copper inventory has declined in the past two days and is oscillating in the low - level range [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper opened low and moved lower, with intraday oscillation under pressure. The EU promotes the implementation of the EU - US agreement, and the legislative proposal cancels some tariffs on the US, reducing automobile tariffs to 15%. Fed's Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September and further cuts in the next three to six months. The Fed incident continues to ferment [1] - On the supply side, Codelco raises the estimate of accident losses and lowers the 2025 production target. In May, refined copper production increased by 14.0% year - on - year. The port inventory of refined copper ore has decreased to the lowest level in the past five years. The smelter TC/RC fees continue to stabilize and rise. Long - term contracts are profitable, while spot contracts are still at a loss. The sulfuric acid price is at a high level in the same period of history, supporting smelter profits. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly put - into - production smelter in East China has started production. It is expected that the refined copper production will not fluctuate significantly, but smelters may cut or stop production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid overstock [1] - On the demand side, the spot premium has strengthened, downstream buyers are cautious, and the market trading is light [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved low, with intraday oscillation on the strong side, and closed at 79,410 yuan/ton at the end of the session [4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 210 yuan/ton, and in South China is 60 yuan/ton. On August 29, 2025, the LME official price is 9,789 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium is - 85.5 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of August 22, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 41.32 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.14 cents/pound [7] - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 21,400 tons, an increase of 180 tons from the previous period. As of August 25, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 83,300 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 158,000 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 275,200 short tons, an increase of 1,459 short tons from the previous period [11]