冠通研究：原油：反弹

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is "Rebound", with a strategy of "Sell on rallies" [1] Core View of the Report - Although the crude oil price rebounded due to positive US EIA data and increased market bets on a Fed rate cut in September, as well as the difficult progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement, the subsequent consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and Russia is increasing its crude oil exports. The supply - demand situation of crude oil is weakening, so it is recommended to sell on rallies [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. US EIA data shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories continue to decline, and overall oil product inventories also continue to decrease. OPEC+ will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, canceling the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut implemented in November 2023 one year in advance. Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for Asia in September. Concerns about the US economy have emerged due to lower - than - expected new employment in July. After the US - Russia talks, there are no plans to impose further sanctions on Russia or additional tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil. EIA and IEA have both raised the global oil surplus, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The US's additional 25% tariff on Indian goods may cause changes in the global crude oil trade flow. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement negotiation and India's procurement of Russian crude oil [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The main crude oil futures contract 2510 fell 0.97% to 481.7 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 478.4 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 483.6 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 3,618 to 35,842 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory increase in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 to exceed 2 million barrels per day, 0.8 million barrels per day higher than last month's forecast. EIA has lowered the average Brent crude oil price for 2025 from $68.89/barrel to $67.22/barrel and for 2026 from $58.48/barrel to $51.43/barrel. OPEC maintains the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and raises it for 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA raises the global oil supply growth rate for 2025 by 370,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day and for 2026 by 620,000 barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day, while lowering the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day to 680,000 barrels per day. US EIA data on August 27 showed that the US crude oil inventory for the week ending August 22 decreased by 2.392 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels, refined oil inventory decreased by 1.786 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 838,000 barrels [3] Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, OPEC's June crude oil production was adjusted down by 46,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day, and its July 2025 production increased by 262,000 barrels per day month - on - month, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels per day to 13.439 million barrels per day in the week of August 22. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.15 million barrels per day, with gasoline and diesel demand both increasing month - on - month, driving the weekly supply of US crude oil products to increase by 0.50% month - on - month [4][6]