中航期货螺矿产业链月报-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the macro - environment at home and abroad will improve to some extent. The Fed may start a new round of interest - rate cuts, and the RMB is expected to strengthen in China, which may further expand policy space. However, the newly released steel industry's steady - growth plan has no obvious positive impact. After the military parade, coal mine复产 may increase coal - end pressure, and the cost support is limited. The steel market is in a stage of weakening demand while steel mill production is increasing, so the supply - demand mismatch still exerts pressure on prices. It is expected that steel prices will mainly fluctuate weakly in September, waiting for demand improvement signals, and the price may first decline and then rise [78]. - In September, the market will focus on the sustainability of high hot - metal production. Entering the golden September and silver October demand season, with a favorable domestic and foreign macro - environment and better profits for steel mills this year, iron ore prices may not enter a trending downward channel without a rapid decline in hot - metal production. However, attention should be paid to the improvement of steel demand. High iron ore prices may stimulate shipping enthusiasm, and iron ore shipping may accelerate in September. It is expected that iron ore prices may first rise and then fall, ranging from 730 to 800 [81]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Steel: In August, steel prices rose first and then fell. The spot price was relatively stable, mainly due to the weakening cost support after the cooling of the anti - involution. In August, the off - season characteristics of steel became apparent, the supply pressure continued to accumulate, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the inventory gradually accumulated, suppressing the price [5]. - Iron Ore: In August, iron ore prices showed strong resilience and fluctuated upward. At the beginning of the month, they adjusted following the decline in coking coal prices. However, the actual demand for iron ore was strong, steel mills maintained high blast - furnace hot - metal production driven by profits, the supply decreased, and the inventory pressure was small. Currently, the market is trading the expectation of peak - season demand, and the price is strong [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - Overseas (US): In July, the US non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, far below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%. The ISM non - manufacturing index in July was 50.1, indicating a slowdown in service - sector activities and increased price pressure. The CPI in July was in line with expectations, but the PPI soared year - on - year, dampening the expectation of interest - rate cuts. In August, the manufacturing and service sectors showed strong demand. The Fed Chairman Powell's dovish statement led the market to fully price in two interest - rate cuts within the year. However, the relatively stable US economy may restrict the Fed's subsequent interest - rate cut process [10][16]. - Domestic: In July, the effect of policies to expand domestic demand continued to emerge. The CPI rose month - on - month, mainly driven by the rise in service and industrial consumer goods prices, and was flat year - on - year due to low food prices. The PPI decreased month - on - month, and the decline narrowed. Since August, the anti - involution trading has weakened, and the market has returned to a volatile pattern. In July, social financing increased year - on - year, mainly contributed by government bonds, but the subsequent support may weaken. The RMB loans decreased year - on - year, and both corporate and household loans declined. The economic indicators in July showed marginal weakness, and the real economy was still weak [19][23][28]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - Terminal Demand: - Real Estate: Real estate investment continued to decline, sales weakened, new construction decline narrowed slightly, and the completion area decline expanded. The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to fall. The Shanghai government issued new real - estate policies to boost consumption [35]. - Infrastructure: From January to July, infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year, a slowdown from the previous period. In July, the issuance of new special bonds accelerated, and the "special new special bonds" also accelerated issuance, which will support infrastructure steel demand [38]. - Automobile: In July, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The new - energy vehicle market continued to grow rapidly [42]. - Excavator and Ship: In July, the production and sales of excavators increased, and the export of ships increased [45]. - Steel Export: In July, steel exports continued to grow well. The export of steel billets reached a record high. However, the US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, and the subsequent impact on exports needs attention [46][47]. - Supply: In July, China's crude - steel and pig - iron production decreased year - on - year. In August, the blast - furnace operating rate of steel mills was high, and the electric - furnace operating rate continued to rise. Currently, steel mills lack the motivation to reduce production, but attention should be paid to the impact of end - of - month maintenance [51][54][56]. - Inventory: In August, steel supply increased while demand decreased, and steel inventory began to accumulate significantly. The inventory pressure was mainly on social inventory, showing a transfer from the production end to the circulation end [60]. - Apparent Demand: In August, steel demand gradually weakened. The demand for building materials continued to weaken, while the demand for plates was still supported by exports and manufacturing. In September, demand may improve slowly [63]. - Iron Ore (Import, Shipment, and Inventory): In July, iron ore imports decreased. In August, iron ore shipments gradually recovered, and the arrival at ports increased slowly. Since August, hot - metal production has remained at a high level of over 2.4 million tons, supporting iron ore prices. The port inventory was relatively stable, and steel mills made small - scale restocking [66][67][69][73].