铜月报（2025年8月）-20250829

Report Overview - The report is a copper monthly report for August 2025, released by AVIC Futures [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating Report's Core View - In September, it is recommended to buy on dips. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, which will loosen liquidity and open up upward space for copper prices. Coupled with the tight supply of copper mines and the traditional peak consumption season from September to October, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to maintain the operation strategy of buying on dips, with attention paid to the pressure at the 81,000 yuan mark [6][7] Summaries by Directory 1. Market Outlook - In September, it is recommended to buy on dips. The overseas focus is on the Fed's September interest - rate meeting, with a high probability of a rate cut. If the rate cut is greater than or equal to 25bps, it is considered bullish; less than 25bps is neutral. The Q3 rate cuts will continue to open up space, and two rate cuts are still expected this year, which will relieve the upward pressure on metals. The euro - zone economic data has improved significantly, and the sustainability of the improvement should be monitored. The domestic economy is generally stable, with the RMB exchange rate strengthening. There is still a large policy space in the fourth quarter, and there is a possibility of further rate cuts and reserve - requirement ratio cuts. The tight supply of copper mines this year is stronger than last year, and the traditional peak consumption season from September to October also supports copper prices. Copper prices may fluctuate strongly, and the operation strategy of buying on dips is recommended [6][7] 2. Market Review - In August, copper prices maintained a high - level consolidation. On August 1, the lowest price of Shanghai copper reached 77,960 yuan/ton, and on August 25, the highest price reached 79,830 yuan/ton. The market's focus shifted to the Fed's rate - cut time and rhythm. On the fundamental side, the raw - material supply remained tight. After the implementation of the 232 reciprocal tariffs, the inventory in non - US regions increased slightly, but the inventory - building speed was slow. The downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited, which restricted the upward space [9][10] 3. Macroeconomic Aspect US - In July, the non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the year - on - year increase in hourly wages rose from 3.8% to 3.9%. The employment rate remained relatively low, and the labor market was relatively stable. Standard & Poor's and Fitch confirmed the US sovereign credit ratings. The preliminary values of the US manufacturing and service PMIs in August were higher than expected. The CPI, core CPI, and PPI in July increased year - on - year. The durable - goods orders decreased month - on - month. After Fed Chairman Powell's speech, traders increased their bets on a September rate cut and fully priced in two rate cuts by the end of the year [14] Euro - zone - The German and French manufacturing PMIs improved significantly in August. The euro - zone's August PMI rose above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022. The second - quarter GDP annual rate was in line with expectations. The ECB President said that the current tariff situation was better than the worst - case scenario. The market's expectation of an ECB rate cut this year remained stable [16] China - In July, the added value of large - scale industries, social - consumption retail sales, and other economic data showed certain trends. The growth rate of economic data from July to August faced greater pressure, and more policy support was expected. The RMB exchange rate was relatively stable, and once it strengthened, there would be more space for fiscal and monetary policies. It is expected that there will still be a large policy space in the fourth quarter, and there is a possibility of rate cuts and reserve - requirement ratio cuts [21][26] 4. Fundamental Aspect Supply - In July, China's copper - ore imports increased. The supply from Chile and Peru rebounded. The spot processing fee for copper concentrates showed a bottom - rebound trend, but the overall rebound was limited, and the tight supply situation remained. Due to the impact of Freeport Indonesia's copper - concentrate exports, the processing fee decreased slightly. Codelco lowered its annual copper - output target [28][32] Inventory - Global copper inventory was affected by tariffs and the domestic peak season. US copper inventory reached a multi - year high, and LME copper inventory increased significantly in July - August. The inventory in bonded areas and the SHFE remained stable. Currently, copper inventory is high, and there may be a possibility of inventory reduction during the peak season from September to October [35] Production - In July, China's refined - copper production decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the tight supply of cold materials. In August, the number of smelters reducing production due to supply shortages increased. The import volume of refined copper decreased slightly month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level this year [40] Demand - Waste copper: In July, China's waste - copper imports increased more than expected, mainly driven by strong domestic demand [42] - New energy: As of the end of July, the installed capacity of new energy power generation increased significantly year - on - year. The investment in power grids increased, which was conducive to copper consumption [47] - Real estate: The real - estate market was still weak, but policies in Beijing and Shanghai were optimized, and the release of the "Opinions on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" was expected to accelerate urban renewal [51] - Automobile: In July, automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. The production of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. The full - year sales of automobiles are expected to increase, which will drive copper consumption [55] - Home appliances: In July, the production of refrigerators and air - conditioners decreased month - on - month. The production of refrigerators decreased due to the release of pre - demand, and the production of air - conditioners decreased due to the end of promotions and US tariffs [57]