Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are in a downward cycle with a roughly 7-year cycle, currently from 2021 - 2025. In the short term, the downside space for rebar and hot-rolled coils is limited. In the medium term, the low point of rebar and hot-rolled coils in the second half of the year is higher than that in the first half. The RB2510 contract is expected to have room for an upward movement after consolidating the bottom around 3100. The short-term range for the iron ore main contract 2601 is between 750 - 800 [4][7]. - Suggest trying to lay out long positions on the 2601 contract on dips in the medium term and setting stop-losses. Short the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar on rallies for the 10 contract. Iron ore is suitable for short-term operations [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Review - Steel Price Trends: Steel prices have a roughly 7-year cycle, currently in a downward phase from 2021 - 2025. In the first half of this year, steel prices fell continuously, hitting a new low in June. They rose significantly in July with a maximum increase of 16%, reaching a new high for the year, and then fell continuously in August [7][8]. - Stainless Steel and Iron Ore Trends: Stainless steel has been in a downward trend since 2022. Iron ore has a similar long - cycle to rebar and hot-rolled coils but with differences. It has been in a general downward trend since 2021, mainly in 2021, and has been in a wide - range oscillation between 555 - 955 from 2022 to now. Iron ore is more resistant to decline than rebar and hot-rolled coils. In the first half of the year, its lowest point was 671, not breaking last year's low of 641.5. It rose strongly in July, reaching a high of 835.5, and fluctuated between 760 - 805 in August. The main contract has been shifted to 2601 [12]. Part 2: Current Analysis - Economic and Steel Price Relationship: There is a high consistency between economic growth and steel prices when the investment contribution is relatively stable. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 5.4%, and the annual economic target is 5%. The economic growth rate in the second quarter was 5.3%, and the growth rate in the first half of the year was 5.3%, better than expected. Anti - involution may promote economic growth and boost steel prices [21]. - Real Estate and Steel Consumption: As the real estate industry adjusts, the steel consumption structure is changing, with the proportion of real estate steel consumption decreasing and that of manufacturing increasing. From January to July 2025, real estate indicators such as sales, investment, new construction, and construction area all showed negative growth, making the real estate industry a drag on steel consumption [24][27]. - Infrastructure and Steel Consumption: The scale of local government special bonds in 2025 reached 4.4 trillion yuan, a record high. Although the total infrastructure investment increased steadily in the first half of the year with a growth rate of 4.6%, the proportion of special bonds invested in traditional infrastructure may decline [30][33]. - Manufacturing and Steel Consumption: The growth rate of manufacturing investment has slightly declined. However, due to policies such as large - scale equipment updates and trade - in of consumer goods, the steel demand in industries such as automobiles, home appliances, energy, and machinery is increasing. The production and sales of automobiles and excavators have increased significantly, driving steel consumption [36]. - Home Appliance and Steel Consumption: In the first half of the year, the growth rate of most home appliances slowed down. The total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in the second quarter increased compared with the same period last year, but the production schedule in the third quarter decreased significantly [42]. - Steel Export: Although the growth rate of steel exports in 2025 has declined compared with the previous two years, the absolute volume is still higher than the same period in previous years. However, due to the repeated US tariff policies and the increase in anti - dumping duties from major export countries, steel exports are facing obstacles [45]. - Steel Production: From January to July 2025, the national crude steel production was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%; pig iron production was 505.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry from January to July was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [46][59]. - Iron Ore Supply: From January to July 2024, China's iron ore imports increased by 4.9% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 696.569 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. As of August 29, the iron ore port inventory at 45 ports was 137 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 318,000 tons. In July 2025, the domestic iron concentrate production was 23.119 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [64][65]. - Analysis Logic and Trading Opportunities: The rebar market structure has changed from backwardation to contango, while the hot - rolled coil market remains in backwardation. Pay attention to the phased trading opportunities of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, and consider shorting the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 10 contract. Also, consider shorting the ratio of rebar to iron ore in October and November [71][80][81].
格林大华期货钢矿期货月报-20250829
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-08-29 12:01