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原油月报:需求支撑减弱,供给过剩压力上升,油价中枢仍有下探空间-20250829
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-29 12:24

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In August, the oil price center declined, with WTI falling below the strong support level of $65. In September, as the US crude oil consumption peak season ends, the demand - side support for oil prices will gradually weaken. Along with OPEC's continued production increase, the pressure of supply surplus is expected to rise, and the oil price center is likely to continue to decline. The key price level to watch is $60, which is close to the break - even point of new US shale oil wells. The US crude oil production will be a major variable on the supply side. Potential positives in September include the high probability of the Fed starting to cut interest rates and OPEC possibly suspending additional production increases; potential negatives mainly concern the situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. If the conflict ends, oil prices may drop significantly. The recommended monitoring ranges are WTI [55, 65] and SC [420, 500] [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与展望 - Crude Oil Market Review and Outlook: In August, the oil price center moved down. In September, demand support will weaken, supply surplus pressure will increase, and the oil price center is expected to continue to decline. Key price to watch is $60, and the US crude oil production is a major supply - side variable. Potential positives and negatives exist, and the monitoring ranges are given [9]. 3.2宏观经济 - IMF's Economic Growth Forecast: On July 29, the IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2% to 3% due to China's better - than - expected economic growth and lower - than - expected Sino - US tariff levels [22]. - Fed's Interest Rate Expectations: Fed Chair Powell indicated that the risk of the employment market may lead the Fed to cut interest rates in September. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate in September is 8.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 91.1%. For October, the probability of maintaining the rate is 4.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 46.8% [9]. 3.3供需和库存 - Supply: In July 2025, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 262,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production rose by 170,000 barrels per day to 9.526 million barrels per day, Iraq's decreased by 51,000 barrels per day to 3.902 million barrels per day, and the UAE's increased by 109,000 barrels per day to 3.169 million barrels per day. As of the week ending August 22, US crude oil production was 13.44 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 57,000 barrels per day [10][35][40]. - Demand: In July 2025, EIA, OPEC, and IEA monthly reports forecasted the global crude oil demand in 2025 to be 103.54 million, 105.13 million, and 103.74 million barrels per day respectively, with year - on - year increases of 80,000, 129,000, and 70,000 barrels per day compared to 2024. As of the week ending August 22, domestic crude oil processing volume was 14.4842 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,700 tons. In July, crude oil imports were 47.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.50%, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 327.02 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.89% [10][44][57]. - Inventory: As of the week ending August 22, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels to 418.29 million barrels, strategic crude oil reserves increased by 800,000 barrels to 404.2 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels to 222.33 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels to 114.24 million barrels. China's port inventory increased to 28.737 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 tons, and Shandong refinery in - plant inventory increased to 2.52 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,000 tons [10][65][71]. 3.4价差和持仓 - Price Spreads: WTI's monthly spread has fallen to a low level. As of August 28, WTI M1 - M2 was $0.53 per barrel, and M1 - M6 was $1.58 per barrel. The domestic monthly spread has turned negative. The refined oil cracking spread in the US has declined, while the domestic refined oil cracking spread has remained stable [84][87][89]. - Positions: Information on WTI and Brent positions is mentioned, and the SC warehouse receipt volume and total positions have increased [91][94][96]. 3.5总结 - Strategies: Different investment strategies are recommended, including futures unilateral, options unilateral, options strategies, and hedging strategies, with corresponding recommended intensities [101].