黑色系周度报告-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, the market sentiment in the black - series market continues to be weak. The relaxation of real - estate purchase restrictions in Shanghai has no substantial boost to steel demand. With the upcoming military parade environmental protection restrictions, the production of finished products and the supply of iron ore are expected to be reduced, and the demand side is under pressure. For glass and soda ash, the start - up rate and weekly output of float glass are stable, and the factory inventory has stopped rising and started to decline, with slightly improved market sentiment. The supply - demand fundamentals of soda ash have limited improvement, and the main contract fluctuates weakly and steadily [63][66]. - In the short term, the main contracts of the black - series are mainly in a range - bound operation, and attention should be paid to the demand start - up situation during the "Golden September and Silver October". The bottom center of glass has moved up this week, while soda ash lacks upward driving force and mainly fluctuates widely in the short term [64][67]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black - series Weekly Market Review - Futures and Spot Prices: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the closing price of the main futures contract of rebar (RB2510) decreased from 3119 to 3090, a decrease of 29.0 with a decline rate of - 0.9%; hot - rolled coil (HC2601) decreased from 3361 to 3346, a decrease of 15.0 with a decline rate of - 0.4%; iron ore (I2601) increased from 770 to 787.5, an increase of 17.5 with an increase rate of 2.3%; coke (J2601) decreased from 1679 to 1643, a decrease of 35.5 with a decline rate of - 2.1%; coking coal (JM2601) decreased from 1162 to 1151, a decrease of 11.0 with a decline rate of - 0.9%; glass (FG601) increased from 1173 to 1182, an increase of 9.0 with an increase rate of 0.8%; soda ash (SA601) decreased from 1326 to 1296, a decrease of 30.0 with a decline rate of - 2.3%. The corresponding spot prices and basis are also provided [2]. Rebar - Profit: On August 28, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was reported at 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton compared with August 21 [6]. - Supply: As of August 29, 2025, the blast - furnace start - up rate was 83.2%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 240.13 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons; the rebar output was 220.56 million tons, a decrease of 5.91 million tons [11]. - Demand: In the week of August 29, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 204.21 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.14 million tons; as of August 28, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 102,737 tons [15]. - Inventory: In the week of August 29, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 453.77 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 21.26 million tons; the factory inventory was reported at 169.62 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.91 million tons [20]. Iron Ore - Supply: In the week of August 22, the global shipment volume of iron ore was reported at 3115.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 290.8 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was reported at 2462.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 240.8 million tons [25]. - Inventory: In the week of August 29, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 14388.02 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56.18 million tons; the inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel enterprises was reported at 9007.19 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.28 million tons [28]. - Demand: In the week of August 29, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 334.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.9 million tons; as of August 28, the trading volume at major ports in China was reported at 90.7 million tons [33]. Float Glass - Supply: In the week of August 29, the number of operating float - glass production lines was reported at 224, a week - on - week increase of 1; the weekly output was reported at 1117025 tons, the same as last week; as of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was reported at 79.78%, the same as last week; the start - up rate of float glass was reported at 75.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 percentage points [38]. - Inventory: In the week of August 29, the factory inventory of float glass was reported at 6256.6 million weight boxes, a decrease of 104 million weight boxes compared with August 22; the available days of factory inventory were 26.7 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 days [42]. - Demand: As of July 31, the order days of downstream glass deep - processing manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared with July 15 [46]. Soda Ash - Supply: In the week of August 29, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was reported at 82.47%, a decrease of 6.01 percentage points compared with last week; the output was reported at 71.91 million tons, a decrease of 5.23 million tons compared with last week [51]. - Inventory: As of August 29, the factory inventory of soda ash was reported at 186.75 million tons, a decrease of 4.33 million tons compared with August 22 [56]. - Sales - to - production Ratio: As of August 29, the sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was reported at 106.02%, an increase of 8.22 percentage points compared with August 22 [60]. Strategy Recommendations - Rebar and Iron Ore: In the medium to long term, the market sentiment is weak, and production is expected to be restricted. In the short term, the main contracts are in a range - bound operation, and attention should be paid to the "Golden September and Silver October" demand [63][64]. - Glass and Soda Ash: In the medium to long term, the market sentiment of glass has improved slightly, and soda ash shows a weak and stable fluctuation. In the short term, the bottom of glass has moved up, and soda ash fluctuates widely [66][67].