铜月报(2025年8月)-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the easing of liquidity will open up upward space for copper prices. Coupled with the tight supply of copper mines, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to maintain the operation strategy of buying on dips. The upper level should pay attention to the pressure at the 81,000 mark [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In August, copper prices remained in a high - level consolidation. On August 1st, the lowest price of Shanghai copper reached 77,960 yuan/ton, and on August 25th, the highest price reached 79,830 yuan/ton. The market's focus shifted to the time and rhythm of the Fed's interest rate cuts. The tight raw material supply continued, and the downstream's acceptance of high prices was insufficient, limiting the upward space [10]. 3.2 Macro - aspect - Overseas: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The probability of a rate cut is high, and it is expected to cut rates twice this year. The employment data in July was not as expected, but the labor market remained relatively stable. The S&P and Fitch affirmed the US sovereign credit rating. The US manufacturing and service PMI in August improved. The eurozone's economic data improved significantly, and the market's expectation of the ECB's rate cut remained stable [8][15][17]. - Domestic: The domestic economy is generally stable. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The growth rate of domestic economic data in July and August slowed down, and it is expected that there will be more policy support in the second half of the year [23]. 3.3 Fundamental - aspect - Supply: - In July, China's copper ore imports increased, with a month - on - month increase of 8.96% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. The supply from Chile and Peru rebounded. However, the tight supply situation of copper mines has not improved significantly, and the spot processing fee of copper concentrates has declined slightly [27][30]. - In July, China's refined copper production was 1.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%, but a month - on - month decrease. In August, the number of smelters reducing production increased due to the tight supply of copper concentrates and cold materials [37]. - Inventory: Currently, copper inventories are relatively high. As of August 28th, the COMEX copper inventory was 275,200 tons, the bonded - area copper inventory was 83,300 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory was 81,700 tons. With the arrival of the peak season from September to October, there may be a possibility of destocking [33]. - Demand: - In July, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73%, mainly driven by strong domestic demand [39]. - From January to July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China increased by 18.2% year - on - year. The installed capacity of new energy sources such as solar and wind power increased rapidly, and the investment in power grid projects increased by 12.5% year - on - year [43]. - In July, the production and sales of automobiles in China increased year - on - year. The production of new energy vehicles in July was 1.176 million, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The automobile industry is expected to continue to drive copper consumption [47]. - In July, the production of household refrigerators and air conditioners in China decreased month - on - month. The production of refrigerators decreased due to the end of promotional activities and inventory pressure, and the production of air conditioners decreased due to the return to rationality of the market and the suppression of export demand by US tariffs [51].