Report Title - "High-level Fluctuations, Awaits New Cotton Listing" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to tight spot markets, an improved macro - environment, and consumption expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October." As new cotton is set to be listed in late September with a significant increase in production, there will be a game between cotton farmers and ginners. It is predicted that ginners will purchase relatively cautiously, and there will be greater pressure when a large amount of new cotton is listed around the National Day. The price in September is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and enterprises can seize the opportunity to hedge for new cotton. The basis is expected to remain strong. The cotton yarn market mainly follows cotton prices but faces greater pressure later due to intense industrial chain competition and declining exports [61]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Trend Review - In August, Zhengzhou cotton prices fluctuated at a high level. The tight spot market supported prices, while the expected large increase in Xinjiang cotton production in the new year suppressed the market. Macro - factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, a phased Sino - US agreement, and an improved domestic macro - environment were favorable for commodity prices. With the consumption expectations of the "Golden September and Silver October," cotton prices remained high. Cotton yarn mainly followed cotton prices, but due to obvious over - capacity, spinning profits were significantly compressed, and the pressure would increase with the continued expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity [7]. 2. Supply - side Analysis 2.1 Global Supply - Demand Balance - According to the USDA's August global cotton supply - demand forecast report, in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, import, and export volumes were all adjusted downward month - on - month, and the ending inventory decreased. In the 2024/25 season, the total global cotton production was expected to be adjusted downward month - on - month, consumption to increase, and exports to decrease, and the ending inventory declined again. In 2025/26, the expected global cotton production was 2539.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.1 million tons (1.5%); consumption was 2568.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0 million tons (0.1%); imports were 948.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.9 million tons (2.5%); exports were 949.0 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.0 million tons (2.5%); and the global ending inventory was 1609.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 74.2 million tons (4.4%) [13]. 2.2 US Cotton - In 2025/26, the US cotton planting area was 56.311 million mu, a month - on - month decrease of 5.117 million mu; the harvested area was 44.65 million mu, a month - on - month decrease of 7.928 million mu; the abandonment rate was 20.7%, a month - on - month increase of 6.3 percentage points. The expected yield per mu was 64.4 kg, a month - on - month increase of 4.0 kg; the production was 2.877 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 302,000 tons. Consumption was expected to be 370,000 tons with no obvious month - on - month adjustment; exports were expected to be 2.613 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 109,000 tons. The ending inventory decreased by 218,000 tons to 784,000 tons [14]. 2.3 Indian Cotton - According to the Indian Cotton Association's July supply - demand balance sheet, in the 2023/24 season, the expected production was 5.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 190,000 tons (3.4%); imports were expected to be 258,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 40,000 tons (13.1%). There was no obvious month - on - month adjustment in demand data, and the ending inventory increased by 153,000 tons to 666,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.8%. In the 2024/25 season, the beginning inventory increased to 666,000 tons, and there was no obvious month - on - month adjustment in production and import expectations, which were 5.294 million tons and 663,000 tons respectively. In terms of demand, the expected consumption was 5.338 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 102,000 tons (1.9%); exports were expected to be 306,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons (5.9%). The ending inventory increased by 34,000 tons to 979,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% [20]. 2.4 Brazilian Cotton - CONAB's 2024/25 cotton production forecast data showed that the expected cotton - planting area in Brazil was 2.086 million hectares (about 31.29 million mu), a year - on - year increase of 7.3%; the expected national yield per mu was 125.8 kg, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. Based on this, the expected total cotton production in Brazil in 2024/25 was 3.935 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. In the 2024/25 season, Brazil exported 2.835 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, setting a new record, and it remained the world's largest cotton exporter, with cumulative revenue of about $4.85 billion. Brazilian cotton was mainly exported to Vietnam, Pakistan, and China, totaling 1.48 million tons [23]. 2.5 Domestic Supply - In the 2025/26 season, the beginning inventory decreased by 120,000 tons to 6.24 million tons. In terms of production, Xinjiang's production increased by 120,000 tons to 6.59 million tons month - on - month, and inland production decreased by 3,000 tons to about 310,000 tons, with the national total production increasing by about 120,000 tons to 6.9 million tons month - on - month. Imports were expected to continue to decrease by 100,000 tons to 1.4 million tons. The total annual supply decreased by 100,000 tons to 14.54 million tons. In terms of total demand, the overall textile cotton demand would remain stable at a relatively high level. The expected annual textile cotton consumption was maintained at 7.9 million tons, and other consumption and exports remained unchanged at 380,000 tons and 20,000 tons respectively, with total demand stable at 8.3 million tons [24]. 2.6 Inventory and Imports - At the end of July, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons (22.62%) from the previous month and 588,400 tons (21.18%) lower than the same period last year. As of the end of July, the textile enterprises' in - stock industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the end of the previous month. The disposable cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 1.2062 million tons, a decrease of 9,400 tons from the end of the previous month. The total industrial and commercial inventory was 3.0882 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 497,000 tons. As of August 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 369,600 tons (16.88%) from the end of July. As of August 15, the textile enterprises' in - stock industrial cotton inventory was 924,200 tons, an increase of 25,800 tons from the end of the previous month. The disposable cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 1.2345 million tons, an increase of 28,300 tons from the end of the previous month. The total industrial and commercial inventory was 2.7444 million tons, a decrease of 343,800 tons from the end of July. In July 2025, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons (66.7%) and a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons (73.2%). From January to July 2025, China imported 520,000 tons of cotton cumulatively, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. In the 2024/25 season (from September 2024 to August 2025), the cumulative cotton imports were 1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.8%. In July 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of about 20,000 tons (16.4%); from January to July 2025, the cumulative cotton - yarn imports were 780,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14%. In the 2024/25 season (from September 2024 to July 2025), the cumulative cotton - yarn imports were about 1.28 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.95% [26][31]. 3. Demand - side Analysis 3.1 Domestic Demand - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.29%. From January to July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 28.4238 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In July, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products were 96.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 24.63%. From January to July, the cumulative retail sales were 837.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [38]. 3.2 Foreign Demand - In July 2025, China exported $26.766 billion worth of textiles and clothing, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.01%. Among them, textile exports were $11.604 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.55% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%; clothing exports were $15.162 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.55% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%. From January to July 2025, China exported $170.741 billion worth of textiles and clothing, a year - on - year increase of 0.63%. Among them, textile exports were $82.122 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%; clothing exports were $88.619 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% [41]. 3.3 Textile Industry Inventory - In June, the inventory of the textile industry was 401.53 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 1.12%. The finished - product inventory of the textile industry was 215.3 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.18% and a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. The inventory of textile and clothing was 187.98 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36%. The finished - product inventory of textile and clothing was 99.31 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 2.25% and a year - on - year increase of 1.68% [43]. 3.4 US Retail Sales and Inventory - In June 2025, the retail sales of clothing and clothing accessories in the US (seasonally adjusted) were $26.342 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.88% and a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. In May 2025, the inventory of clothing and clothing - accessory retailers in the US (seasonally adjusted) was $58.056 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.98% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.49%. The inventory - to - sales ratio of US clothing and clothing - accessory retailers in May 2025 (seasonally adjusted) was 2.22, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06 and a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 [48]. 3.5 Industrial Chain Operation - In the cotton - yarn market, downstream procurement increased, and the overall performance improved slightly but was still mediocre. In terms of price, spinners' quotes increased slightly, and downstream gradually digested them, but the acceptance of high prices was poor. In terms of profit, there was little change. Currently, the cash - flow loss of inland spinners for C32S was about 500 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang spinners still had a small profit. In terms of inventory and operation, the transaction in the pure - cotton yarn market continued, and spinners continued to reduce inventory slightly. There was little change in the operation rate this week, and inland spinners continued to limit production. In the all - cotton grey - cloth market, the demand improved slightly, and the order volume of all - cotton weavers increased slightly, mainly small and scattered orders, and the recovery speed was lower than expected. This week, the operation rate of all - cotton grey - cloth increased slightly, the sales volume increased slightly, and weavers reported maintaining production - sales balance, with the current inventory decreasing slightly. It was reported that the order volume in the Nantong home - textile market was insufficient, the competition among weavers was fierce, and the operation - rate recovery was insufficient. The knitting orders in the Foshan area continued, but the operation - rate recovery was limited. The order - receiving situation of weavers in the northern region was average. Weavers generally had little confidence in September, and the marginal improvement in raw - material procurement enthusiasm was limited, generally maintaining just - in - time purchasing [51]. 4. Logic and Outlook - Cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and enterprises can hedge for new cotton. The basis is expected to remain strong. Cotton yarn mainly follows cotton prices but faces greater pressure later due to intense competition in the industrial chain and declining exports [61].
长江期货棉纺月报：高位震荡，等待新棉上市-20250829
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-08-29 12:26