长江期货鲜果月报：震荡偏强运行-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is expected to move in a volatile and moderately strong manner [3] Core Viewpoints - Apple futures were generally strong in August, seeking to break through the resistance level of 8,500 yuan/ton; jujube prices showed a volatile upward trend [6][7] - The downstream consumption is slowly recovering, but the price level is under significant pressure; fruit prices were high in the early stage and low in the later stage [11][15][18] - The prices of early-maturing apples are strong, which will drive up the prices of new Red Fuji apples and futures prices; new-year apple production is expected to change little [41] - Jujube prices are expected to remain strong, with high-level volatile and moderately strong trends [58] Summary by Directory 1. 8 - Month Fresh Fruit Price Trend - Apple futures were generally strong in August, attempting to break through the 8,500 yuan/ton resistance level [6] - Jujube prices showed a volatile upward trend in August, strong in the early stage and adjusted in the later stage, but still generally strong [7] 2. Macro - Analysis - Downstream Consumption Slow Recovery: In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%; from January to July, the cumulative total was 28.42 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. By consumption type, the combined retail sales of goods and services from January to July increased by about 5% year - on - year; in July, the retail sales of goods increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and catering revenue increased by 1.1% year - on - year [14] - High Price Pressure: In July 2025, the national CPI was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. Food prices decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, with fresh vegetable prices down 7.6% and fresh fruit prices up 2.8% year - on - year [17] - Fluctuating Fruit Prices: As of the 31st week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.05 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg from the 29th week. Compared with the first half of 2024, fruit prices rose in the second quarter but have been weakening since July [20] 3. Apple Price Outlook - Wholesale Market Price: As of August 22, 2025, the wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.74 yuan/kg, a 0.02 yuan/kg increase from the previous month; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.50 yuan/kg, a 0.22 yuan/kg decrease from the previous month [24] - Main Producing Areas: In Shandong, prices vary by variety and grade; in Shaanxi, the prices of paper - bagged Gala apples also vary by quality [29] - Cold Storage Situation: As of August 20, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 39.45 tons, a decrease of 6.56 tons from the previous week. The arrival of early - maturing apples affected the inventory clearance speed [31] - Sales Area Market: In the South China market, the number of trucks arriving at the market increased slightly. The market is still dominated by Fuji apples, with early - maturing Gala apples increasing in volume. The sales speed of high - quality goods is acceptable, while that of low - quality goods is slow [35] - Storage Profit: The profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week [37] - Market Outlook: The early - maturing paper - bagged Gala apples in Shaanxi are in the middle and late stages, with a small proportion of high - quality goods and polarized prices. The prices of early - maturing apples are strong, which will drive up the prices of new Red Fuji apples and futures prices. New - year production is expected to change little [41] 4. Jujube Outlook - Spot Price: Prices vary in different markets such as Hebei, Henan, and Guangzhou, depending on the grade and quality of jujubes [47] - Inventory Data: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9,456 tons, a decrease of 63 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66% and a year - on - year increase of 74.95%. The jujube market is currently in a weak equilibrium of "tight supply but weak demand" [49] - Sales Area Profit Analysis: The average purchase price of gray jujubes in Xinjiang's main producing areas is 5.33 yuan/kg, and the price of first - grade finished products in Hebei's sales area is 9.00 - 9.80 yuan/kg. The gross profit is about 2.54 yuan/kg [54] - Market Outlook: Jujube farmers have high expectations for the new - season purchase. The inventory holders have different mentalities, and the market supply of finished products is limited. Jujube prices are expected to be high - level volatile and moderately strong [58]