油料产业风险管理日报-20250829

Report Summary 1. Core View - The weather in the late growth stage of US soybeans has turned slightly dry, and the market's sensitivity to the weather has gradually recovered. In the short term, Sino-US talks have increased the expectation of a rebound in US soybeans. The domestic soybean system has weakened due to Sino-US talks in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the supply-demand gap in the far - month can open up the upward space. The domestic rapeseed system also has the expectation of Sino - Canadian talks and may show weak sentiment in the short term [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract price from the cost side. The Sino - Canadian tariff expectation continues to give high support to the far - month contract, but due to the recent negotiation expectation, the short - term sentiment may further suppress the market. The timing of going long needs to pay attention to the subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [5]. - The real pressure on the soybean meal side focuses on the arrival of the inventory inflection point in September. After the trading logic of the market switches to the far - month, attention should be paid to the subsequent soybean supply. The supply of imported soybean raw materials in the country continues to be at a seasonal high, the oil mill's crushing volume has slightly increased, and soybean meal continues the seasonal inventory accumulation trend. In terms of arrivals, it is expected to be 10 million tons in September, 9 million tons in October, and 8 million tons in November. Without purchasing US soybeans, the subsequent soybean arrivals are expected to face a gap after the first quarter of next year [6]. 2. Price Forecast and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about the decline in meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 [3]. - For feed mills with low procurement inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2850 - 3000 [3]. - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal sales prices, they can short soybean meal futures according to their own situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3100 - 3200 [3]. 3. Market Data Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3055, up 16 (0.53%); soybean meal 05 is 2820, up 6 (0.21%); soybean meal 09 is 3022, up 33 (1.1%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2513, up 30 (1.21%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2424, up 16 (0.66%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2550, up 8 (0.31%); CBOT yellow soybeans are 1048.25, unchanged; the offshore RMB is 7.1214, down 0.0333 (-0.47%) [7][9]. Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread is 225, up 9; RM01 - 05 is 75, up 20; M05 - 09 is - 175, down 12; RM05 - 09 is - 134, down 8; M09 - 01 is - 50, up 3; RM09 - 01 is 59, down 12; the soybean meal Rizhao spot price is 3000, unchanged, and the basis is - 39, up 6; the rapeseed meal Fujian spot price is 2534, down 21, and the basis is 51, down 3; the soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 466, up 21, and the futures spread is 556, up 12 [10]. Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4539.2712 yuan/ton, up 445.131 yuan/day and down 0.1941 yuan/week; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3973.63 yuan/ton, down 2.21 yuan/day and down 66.71 yuan/week; the cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) is - 738.0929 yuan/ton, up 61.6559 yuan/day and up 57.307 yuan/week; the import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 604.8362 yuan/ton, up 445.131 yuan/day and up 359.0468 yuan/week; the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 120.0737 yuan/ton, down 17.0232 yuan/day and down 0.0282 yuan/week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 724 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/day and up 93 yuan/week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 815 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/day and up 121 yuan/week [11].