生猪月报：能繁逐步去化利多远月，关注旺季表现-20250829

Report Title - 20250829 Zhonghui Futures Monthly Report on Live Pigs: Gradual Reduction of Reproductive Sows Benefits Far - Month Contracts, Focus on Peak Season Performance [1] Core View - In the short - term, there is supply pressure, but demand is expected to improve marginally in the next 1 - 2 months. The spot and near - month contracts face high weight reduction and production capacity realization pressure, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts may rise as production capacity is gradually reduced, and investors can consider buying at low prices or using reverse spread strategies. The reference range for the main contract is [13700, 14500] [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Spot Performance - In August, the national average live pig price decreased by 0.44 yuan to 13.82 yuan/kg. Prices in Henan, Jiangsu, Hunan, Chongqing, and Sichuan all declined [3][15] - The average spot price of culled sows in sample breeding enterprises decreased by 0.01 yuan to 9.86 yuan/kg, and the average price of 50kg binary sows decreased by 10.96 yuan to 1627.14 yuan/head. The market for culled sows continued to see a slight increase in volume [3][17] - The average出栏 price of 7kg piglets decreased by 80.47 yuan to 364.29 yuan/head, and the average出栏 price of 15kg piglets decreased by 123.96 yuan to 403.75 yuan/head [3][20] 2. Logic and Outlook - Logic: In August, the planned出栏 volume of Steel Union sample enterprises was 13.2257 million heads, a 5.26% increase. The proportion of large pigs出栏 remained high. From January to July 2025, the number of newborn piglets increased, indicating potential growth in出栏 volume in the second half of the year. High supply pressure is expected to continue until May 2026. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising continued to weaken, which is beneficial for the reduction of far - month production capacity. Demand is expected to improve marginally in the next 1 - 2 months [4] - Outlook: The spot and near - month contracts face high weight reduction and production capacity realization pressure, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts may rise as production capacity is gradually reduced, and investors can consider buying at low prices or using reverse spread strategies [5] 3. Key Data - Spot Price: Various prices such as live pigs, sows, and piglets showed a downward trend in August [3][6] - Short - term Supply: The official inventory at the end of the second quarter was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads. The planned出栏 volume of Steel Union sample enterprises in August increased. The average出栏 weight of live pigs increased, while the average weight after slaughter of white - striped pigs decreased. The standard - fat price difference expanded, and the proportion of different weight - range inventories changed [6][23][25] - Medium - term Supply: In July, the national piglet survival rate decreased slightly, the number of piglet births increased, and piglet feed sales decreased slightly. The market supply of live pigs is expected to increase in Q4 2025 [6][29] - Long - term Supply: In July, the increase in reproductive sows in large - scale breeding enterprises was basically zero, the number of culled reproductive sows increased, and the official number of reproductive sows decreased [6][31] - Demand: In August, terminal consumption showed obvious off - season characteristics at first and then recovered. The slaughtering rate, daily slaughter volume, and frozen product storage rate changed slightly, while the fresh - sales rate decreased slightly [6][33] - Cost: In August, the corn price decreased, and the soybean meal price increased. The cost of purchasing piglets and self - breeding and self - raising decreased [39][41] - Profit: In August, due to increased supply and limited demand recovery, the breeding profit decreased. The self - breeding and self - raising profit turned negative, and the loss of the mode of purchasing piglets increased [43] - Price Ratio: In late August, the national average pig - grain price ratio fell below 6:1, entering the third - level warning range. The state plans to conduct central frozen pork reserve purchases, which is beneficial for short - term market sentiment [45]