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“反内卷”的风在化工市场掠过
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-08-29 12:59

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2019, domestic petrochemical production capacity has grown rapidly, but demand has faced difficulties, resulting in an oversupply of traditional petrochemical products and poor industry profitability [11] - The production capacity growth rates of varieties such as PX and ethylene glycol have begun to slow down significantly this year, and the rapid growth of polyester industry production capacity may be coming to an end [11] - In the future, the trend of reducing oil and increasing chemicals will continue, and the R & D and scale growth of high - value - added new materials will accelerate. Policy regulation is expected to reduce supply growth and relieve the pressure of future concentrated production [11] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Some old - fashioned production capacities have undergone a transformation - In the petrochemical industry, the proportion of pre - 1996 production facilities is relatively high in ethylene, downstream PE, and pure benzene (about 17%), and about 15% in propylene. The proportion of mainstream petrochemical products such as ethylene glycol, polypropylene, styrene, PX, and PTA is within 10% [3] - The over - 20 - year - old facilities in the industry are concentrated in state - owned enterprises and are mostly refining - supporting facilities. Some old - fashioned state - owned production capacities have gradually withdrawn, while others have been upgraded through technological transformation [3] - It is difficult to simply eliminate production capacity by "one - size - fits - all". Policy tends to "close first and then open" the refining capacity, and the replacement of refining capacity often leads to continuous growth in chemical product production capacity [3] 2. "Solving oversupply through major overhauls" is essentially industrial upgrading - The integration of upstream and downstream refining and chemical industries in the domestic petrochemical industry has deepened. Enterprises are actively deploying high - value - added petrochemical products, and profit accounting has shifted to comprehensive benefits [6] - Due to the complexity of refinery terminal product layout and comprehensive consideration of benefits, short - term market - based adjustment may fail for individual products, and it is difficult to reach a unified production reduction agreement [6] - The path to "solve petrochemical oversupply through major overhauls" may be to upgrade old - fashioned facilities, but it is a complex system project with many challenges and unclear implementation paths [7] 3. Controlling new additions and project approvals to relieve supply growth pressure - The state's approval of large - scale refining and chemical integration or chemical production projects using crude oil as raw materials has become stricter. The production capacity growth rate of domestic PX has slowed down significantly [8] - In the future, ethylene project construction may be subject to strict national approval. Although new production capacity will bring pressure, strengthening project approval may relieve the pressure of continuous production [8] - Overseas, the scale of naphtha cracking production capacity tends to shrink, and the improvement of the overseas olefin supply - demand pattern will help relieve China's import pressure [9] 4. Summary and outlook - The petrochemical industry has an oversupply of traditional products and poor profitability. The production capacity growth of some products has slowed down, and the rapid growth of polyester industry production capacity may end [11] - The proportion of old - fashioned production capacity in the industry is relatively low, and the impact of policies is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the upgrading and withdrawal of supporting facilities of small - scale old - fashioned refining capacity [11] - In the future, the trend of reducing oil and increasing chemicals will continue, and policy regulation will focus on olefin downstream products, reducing supply growth and relieving the pressure of concentrated production [11]