黑色金属日报-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: The operation rating is not clearly defined by text, indicated by 'なな☆' [1] - Hot - Rolled Coil: The operation rating is not clearly defined by text, indicated by '女女女' [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, suggesting a more definite long - term trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ★★★, suggesting a more definite long - term trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coking Coal: The operation rating is not clearly defined by text, indicated by 'な女女' [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★★, suggesting a more definite long - term trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silicon Iron: The operation rating is not clearly defined by text, indicated by '女女女' [1] 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - Steel: The steel market faces a negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level is low. The downstream demand is still weak, and the market remains under pressure in the shock. The improvement of building material demand in the peak season needs to be observed, and the market expectation is still pessimistic [2] - Iron Ore: The supply - demand of iron ore weakens marginally, and the reduction of hot metal production moves from expectation to reality. The market speculative sentiment fluctuates, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] - Coke: The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal remains at a high level in the off - season. The coke price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with high short - term volatility [4] - Coking Coal: The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal remains at a high level in the off - season. The coking coal price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with high short - term volatility [5] - Silicon Manganese: The silicon manganese demand is good, the price has limited downward space, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [6] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron demand is acceptable, the supply rebounds significantly, and it mainly follows the trend of silicon manganese [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - This week, the apparent demand for thread steel improved, production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand and production of hot - rolled coil both declined slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate [2] - The hot metal production decreased slightly at a high level, and the market faced negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level was low [2] - The real estate investment continued to decline significantly, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing gradually slowed down, and the overall domestic demand was still weak, while exports were expected to remain high [2] Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments declined from a high level but were still stronger than last year. The domestic arrival volume decreased, and port inventory decreased slightly this week [3] - Terminal demand continued to improve seasonally. Steel mills' profits weakened, but the willingness to actively reduce production was insufficient, and hot metal production decreased slightly [3] - Overseas interest - rate cut expectations increased, and domestic policy rumors about production restrictions were repeated. Iron ore supply - demand weakened marginally, and it was expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - The price was weakly volatile during the day. Due to the approaching major event, the production - restriction expectation of coking plants in East China rose again [4] - The daily hot metal output increased, and the steel - making profit remained high. The coking industry proposed an eighth - round price increase, and the daily production increased slightly [4] - The overall coke inventory increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders decreased. The price was greatly affected by policies and had high short - term volatility [4] Coking Coal - The price was weakly volatile during the day. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions weakened, and the terminal inventory decreased slightly [5] - The total coking coal inventory increased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory decreased slightly. It was likely to increase in the short term due to the resumption of production of previously shut - down mines [5] - The carbon element supply was abundant, and the price was greatly affected by policies and had high short - term volatility [5] Silicon Manganese - The price declined during the day and rebounded at the end of the session. Attention should be paid to the shipment of South32's Australian mine [6] - The hot metal output remained above 240, and the weekly production of silicon manganese continued to increase. The inventory did not accumulate, and the spot and futures demand was good [6] - The manganese ore price decreased slightly this week, but due to the approaching major event, manufacturers stocked up in advance, and the price had limited downward space [6] Silicon Iron - The price declined during the day and then rebounded. The hot metal output decreased slightly but remained above 240, and the export demand remained at about 30,000 tons [7] - The metal magnesium production decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand declined marginally. The overall demand was acceptable [7] - The silicon iron supply rebounded significantly, the market expected good demand, and the on - balance - sheet inventory decreased slightly. It mainly followed the trend of silicon manganese [7]