Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In August, the fundamentals of PVC were bearish, with social inventories increasing to the same level as the previous year. The market is pessimistic about future exports due to India's higher - than - expected anti - dumping duties. In September, although the fundamentals are weak, the absolute price is low, and the room for further decline is limited. Key factors to watch include持仓量, exports, and inventories. The short - term trend is weakly volatile, and specific trading strategies are proposed [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Next Month's Outlook - Position Volume: PVC, as a traditional short - allocation variety, has seen its 01 contract's position volume approaching 1.2 million lots again. If there are positive news from the real estate or coking coal sectors, a phased rebound may occur due to short - covering [3]. - Exports: From January to July 2025, PVC exports increased by 57% year - on - year, and the export dependence rose to 19%. With the anti - dumping duties and BIS certification policies announced, the focus is on the implementation rhythm of anti - dumping duties [3]. - Inventories: The inventory structure of the upstream and mid - stream is differentiated. Enterprise inventories are not under high pressure, so spot prices are relatively resistant to decline. Social inventories are continuously increasing. If there is a rush to export in September and the peak domestic demand season arrives, the inflection point of social inventory reduction may appear [3]. 3.2 Operation Strategy - In the short term, the market is weakly volatile. Short positions should be gradually closed at low prices. For the V2601 contract, the focus range is [4750, 5150]. - The futures price is higher than the spot price. Industrial players should conduct hedging at high prices [4]. 3.3 Market Review - In August, PVC showed a unilateral downward trend. The V2601 contract fluctuated between 4887 and 5221, with an amplitude of 334 points. The opening price was 5167 yuan/ton (down 9 points or 0.17% from the end of last month), and the closing price was 4907 yuan/ton (down 134 points from the previous month's closing price). The market was affected by macro news and the release of new production capacity, as well as India's anti - dumping duties [7]. - The position volume of the main contract approached 1.2 million lots again, indicating intense capital games [8][10]. - As of August 28, the V01 Changzhou basis was - 246 yuan/ton, and the warrant volume was increasing, indicating strong willingness of industrial players to sell and hedge at high prices [13]. - As of August 28, the V9 - 1 spread was - 151 yuan/ton, and the V3 - 5 spread was - 232 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread continued the inter - month reverse spread, and the 3 - 5 spread strengthened month - on - month [16]. 3.4 Supply - The capacity utilization rate has remained above 75% since the beginning of the year, and the cumulative output from week 1 to 34 increased by 4.4% year - on - year. From July to September, new production capacity of 1.1 million tons was put into operation. Although the new maintenance in September is slightly greater than the restart volume, the supply side is still under pressure [19]. - In September, only Zhongtai, Taizhou Liancheng, and Shaanxi Beiyuan with a total capacity of 2.25 million tons have maintenance plans, while the restart of 800,000 tons of capacity by Haipinglevel and Formosa Plastics is planned, so the positive impact of maintenance is limited [20]. 3.5 Demand - Real Estate: From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas were - 19.4%, - 9.2%, - 16.5%, and - 4% respectively. The decline in new construction area narrowed, while the declines in construction, completion, and sales areas widened. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 5.85% [23]. - Domestic and Foreign Demand: From January to July 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 11.87 million tons (down 2.8% year - on - year), indicating weak domestic demand. Exports were 2.29 million tons (up 830,000 tons or 57% year - on - year). In July, exports were 330,000 tons (up 113% year - on - year). However, due to India's anti - dumping duties, future exports to India may decline [26]. 3.6 Inventory - Enterprise Inventory: As of Thursday, enterprise inventory was 345,000 tons (up 19% year - on - year), with 10 consecutive weeks of inventory reduction. Since July, enterprises have increased pre - sales, and the inventory has dropped to the lowest level in the same period in the past four years [29]. - Social Inventory: As of Thursday, large and small sample social inventories were 450,000 tons and 720,000 tons respectively. Social inventories have increased to the same level as the previous year, and if the current inventory increase rate continues, it is expected to reach a record high at the end of September [32]. 3.7 Profit From July, due to the expectation of anti - involution policies, the profits of chlor - alkali enterprises have been significantly repaired. However, considering the future supply - demand pattern, there is still room for profit compression for upstream enterprises [35].
PVC月报：低估值VS弱现实，资金博弈激烈-20250829
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-29 12:56