Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-29 13:11Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company reported a robust growth in toll revenue, achieving a total revenue of 3.741 billion RMB in H1 2025, which represents a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for H1 2025 was 960 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [6] - The company’s toll revenue for H1 2025 reached 2.45 billion RMB (after tax), marking a significant increase of 13.59% year-on-year, driven by improved traffic flow from newly opened sections of highways [6] - The ongoing expansion and upgrade of core road assets are expected to sustain future traffic growth, with the successful completion of the Xuanguang Expressway project enhancing capacity and economic benefits [6] - The company has a solid dividend policy, committing to distribute at least 60% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in cash dividends over the next three years [6] - The profit forecast for 2025E-2026E has been slightly adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 1.955 billion RMB and 2.002 billion RMB respectively, corresponding to PE multiples of 13 and 12 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 7,147 million RMB for 2025E, 7,228 million RMB for 2026E, and 7,267 million RMB for 2027E, with growth rates of 0.8%, 1.1%, and 0.5% respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,955 million RMB for 2025E, 2,002 million RMB for 2026E, and 2,119 million RMB for 2027E, with growth rates of 17.1%, 2.4%, and 5.8% respectively [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.14 RMB for 2025E, 1.17 RMB for 2026E, and 1.24 RMB for 2027E [2] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 38.6% in 2025E to 40.2% in 2027E [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 12.4% for 2025E, declining to 10.7% by 2027E [2] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 14.59 RMB, with a market capitalization of 17,006 million RMB [3] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 2.1 and a dividend yield of 4.14% [3] - The company's net asset per share is 6.99 RMB, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 55.66% [3]