国投期货农产品日报-20250829

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Buy (Bullish): None - Sell (Bearish): None - Neutral: None - One Star (Slightly Bullish/Bearish): Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Live Hogs, Eggs [1] - Three Stars: None Core Views - The soybean market is influenced by policy, trade negotiations, and weather, with short - term focus on policy orientation and long - term supply concerns [2][3] - The palm oil and soybean oil markets are affected by biodiesel policies, and a "crushing for oil" pattern has emerged [3] - The rapeseed market is affected by production forecasts and import expectations, with rapeseed meal potentially rebounding and rapeseed oil remaining range - bound [6] - The corn market is affected by harvest expectations and trade sentiment, with a possible short - term rebound and long - term weakening [7] - The live hog market is under supply pressure and policy influence, with prices expected to remain weak [8] - The egg market shows signs of capacity reduction, and the price cycle may turn around in the second half of the year [9] Summary by Commodity Soybean - The price of soybean No. 1 has stopped falling and rebounded, with the spread between domestic and imported soybeans widening. Policy - driven sales have increased supply pressure, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to soybean policies [2] - As of August 26, about 11% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. Global oil prices are rising due to biodiesel policies, which may boost soybean crushing. China may face a soybean supply gap in Q1 next year. Future weather in the US may challenge new - season crops [3] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal market may continue to be volatile in the short - term and is cautiously bullish in the long - term due to the "crushing for oil" pattern and potential supply gaps [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The markets are in a state of shock correction. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil shows a decrease in production and an increase in export demand in August. The Indonesian market has better supply - demand prospects. Mid - term overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle, and buying on dips can be considered [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal may stabilize and rebound slightly after a continuous decline. Rapeseed oil is difficult to break out of the narrow - range shock pattern. The expected production of Canadian rapeseed may exceed the current forecast, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of the Saskatchewan governor's visit to China [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continued to rise with reduced positions. The auction of imported corn had a low transaction rate. New - season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest. After the new - season corn starts to be priced in September, it may rebound briefly, but it will continue to be weak at the bottom in the long - term [7] Live Hogs - Live hog futures prices continued to fall, and spot prices remained stable. The supply of live hogs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and prices are expected to remain weak. Policy aims to promote capacity reduction, but no inflection point has been seen yet [8] Eggs - Egg futures prices rebounded slightly at a low level, and spot prices fell significantly. The total futures positions have doubled in the past month. Attention should be paid to the seasonal rebound of egg prices. Signs of old - hen culling are emerging, and capacity reduction is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. Buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips can be considered [9]