国投期货软商品日报-20250829

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, showing a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, showing a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability [1] Core Views - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is still oscillatory, and the upside space is limited. It is advisable to buy on dips [2] - The domestic sugar market's trading focus is shifting to imports and the next season's output estimate. Pay attention to weather and cane growth [3] - The short - term price of apples may continue to rise, but there is limited bullish drive on the supply side in the medium - to - long term [4] - The short - term demand for rubber is expected to weaken. Rubber supply is increasing, natural rubber inventory is decreasing, and synthetic rubber inventory is rising [5] - The pulp supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [6] - The supply - demand situation of logs has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started yet. It is advisable to wait and see [7] Summaries by Commodity Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract increased positions by 57,000 lots, driven by rumors of potential planting area control in Xinjiang and high pre - sales volume of new cotton [2] - The spot basis of inland cotton was stable, with light trading. Downstream buyers purchased for rigid demand [2] - China issued 200,000 tons of sliding - duty processing trade quotas, which have limited impact on overall supply [2] Sugar - Due to insufficient precipitation, the sugarcane yield per unit in Brazil decreased by 11.04% year - on - year as of the end of June [3] - The production progress in Brazil was slow, leading to a significant year - on - year decline in sugarcane and sugar production [3] - The sugar - to - ethanol ratio is at the upper end of the historical range, putting pressure on the upside of US sugar [3] - In China, the sales rhythm is fast, inventory is down year - on - year, and the pressure on spot goods is relatively light [3] Apple - The futures price continued to rise, with increased divergence between bulls and bears [4] - The high price of early - maturing apples has raised market expectations for the opening price of late - maturing apples [4] - The estimated apple output in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, lacking bullish drivers on the supply side [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - The prices of RU, NR, and BR all declined slightly. The domestic natural rubber price was stable with a slight decline, and the synthetic rubber price was stable [5] - Global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and rainfall in most Southeast Asian producing areas is still high [5] - The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased significantly this week [5] - The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires decreased significantly, while that of semi - steel tires increased slowly [5] Pulp - The pulp futures price rose slightly. The spot price of coniferous pulp was stable, and the price of broad - leaf pulp was also stable [6] - As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.084 million tons, a 2.3% decrease from the previous period [6] - The pulp supply sent to China in June increased by 6.1% year - on - year [6] Logs - The futures price oscillated, and the mainstream spot price remained stable [7] - The arrival volume last week decreased significantly, and the overseas price has rebounded for two consecutive months [7] - The daily outbound volume of ports in the off - season is about 60,000 cubic meters, with good overall outbound conditions [7] - As of August 22, the total log inventory in national ports was 3.05 million cubic meters, a 0.33% decrease from the previous period [7]