沥青：在油品中抗跌性明显，裂解渐修复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term fluctuation of asphalt follows crude oil, but it shows obvious resistance to decline among oil products. The basis for the upward elasticity of BU cracking still exists. With demand in the recovery phase and the recent pressure on crude oil prices, the opportunity for unilateral trend trading of asphalt still needs waiting. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of going long on BU cracking on pullbacks [6] 3. Summary According to Related Content Supply - After the U.S. government re - approved Chevron to conduct oil business in Venezuela, the export of Venezuelan oil to the U.S. resumed in August. The diversion effect became more obvious in mid - August. If this continues, the supply pressure on refineries will be relieved. Sinopec's asphalt production has been significantly declining year - on - year due to the upgrading of deep - processing units. There has also been a situation where refineries temporarily switch production from asphalt to residue due to higher residue profits. Considering the low - base effect of the deep production cuts in 2024 and the negative feedback adjustment of profits on supply, the supply situation is complex [3] Demand - Seasonally, the best time for asphalt road construction is from August to October, and road demand is gradually increasing. The high - frequency indicator of actual demand shows that the cumulative shipment volume of 54 sample asphalt refineries in August has increased by 8% year - on - year, breaking the previous bottleneck. The leading indicators, such as the increase in the issuance of new special bonds for toll roads from January to July and the increase in the domestic sales of road rollers, also suggest that the next 1 - 2 months are a critical window for asphalt demand [3] Market Performance and Inventory - On August 28, when crude oil led the decline in energy futures, asphalt futures contracts closed up. Since late August, asphalt has shown obvious resistance to decline. The cracking spread of BU to SC has risen from the range of 220 - 250 yuan/ton to 340 - 350 yuan/ton. From January to July, asphalt production increased by 850,000 tons (+6%) year - on - year, and consumption increased by 600,000 tons (+6%) year - on - year. As of August 22, the cumulative shipment volume increased by 930,000 tons (+8%) year - on - year. Although the social inventory has been difficult to deplete in the third quarter, the refinery inventory has been decreasing, and the overall commercial inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years [2]