Alpha Group(SZ:002292) Huachuang Securities·2025-08-29 15:22Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [7][17]. Core Insights - The company's main business in the infant and toy sectors faced slight pressure in the first half of 2025, but there is optimism for the second half, particularly in the trendy toy segment and the expansion of plush products [1][6]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 1.198 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 8.17%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 37 million yuan, down 32.71% year-over-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 33 million yuan, down 46.22% year-over-year [1][3]. - The company is actively expanding its product lines and innovating within its business segments, particularly in trendy toys and IP development, which are expected to drive future growth [6][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2,715 million yuan in 2024, 2,751 million yuan in 2025, 2,962 million yuan in 2026, and 3,083 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of -0.9%, 1.3%, 7.7%, and 4.1% respectively [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to recover from a loss of 285 million yuan in 2024 to 97 million yuan in 2025, 150 million yuan in 2026, and 181 million yuan in 2027, reflecting significant year-over-year growth rates of 134.1% in 2025, 53.5% in 2026, and 21.3% in 2027 [3][8]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.19 yuan in 2024 to 0.07 yuan in 2025, 0.10 yuan in 2026, and 0.12 yuan in 2027 [3][8].