棉花周报：郑棉维持偏强走势，关注籽棉收购信息-20250831

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic market, short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. In the international market, short - term US cotton may maintain a volatile trend. The report suggests short - term trading [48][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded this week with a weekly increase of 1.5%. ICE cotton futures declined and then rebounded, with a weekly decrease of 1.01% [10] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 75 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 85 yuan/ton [14] 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In July, 50,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons [19] 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory Situation - In the first half of August, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 369,600 tons compared with the second half of July [23] 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory Situation - In July, the yarn inventory was 27.67 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.65 days. The grey cloth inventory was 36.14 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.82 days [27] 3.1.6 Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S yarn increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of C32S yarn increased by 60 yuan/ton, and the price of JC40S yarn increased by 40 yuan/ton [32] 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 539. The number of warehouse receipts was 6,720, and the valid forecasts were 2, with a total of 6,722 [38] 3.1.8 US Cotton Export Situation - As of August 21, the net sales of US upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 179,300 bales, and the net sales of exports in the next year were 0 bales [40] 3.1.9 US Weather Situation - In the US, the total area in drought (D1 - D4) is 27.7%, with D0 - Abnormally Dry at 17.3%, D1 - Moderate Drought at 10.9%, D2 - Severe Drought at 10.8%, D3 - Extreme Drought at 5.5%, and D4 - Exceptional Drought at 0.5% [47] 3.2后市展望 3.2.1 Domestic Market - Xinjiang cotton has basically entered the yield - determining stage. The weather in the main producing areas is ideal, and cotton is growing well. The market expects a slight increase in cotton yield per mu, and the total cotton output in Xinjiang in the 2025/26 season may reach 7 million tons. The expected purchase price of seed cotton is 6 - 6.5 yuan/kg. Textile orders in the peak season are starting, and the operating rate has increased slightly. The 2025 cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quota has little impact on the market. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [48] 3.2.2 International Market - US cotton declined and then rebounded. The weak US dollar due to the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has boosted the price of US cotton. There is some drought in the southern US, but the impact is limited. The good export situation and high excellent - rate of US cotton suggest that short - term US cotton may maintain a volatile trend [48]