白糖周报：郑糖调整后下方空间有限，关注消费-20250831

Report Title - "Zhengzhou Sugar's Downside Limited After Adjustment, Focus on Consumption - Guoxin Futures Sugar Weekly Report" [2] Report Date - August 31, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - After continuous adjustment of sugar prices, the downside is limited supported by the peak season in the domestic market; in the international market, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to support from supply and demand sides. Short - term trading is recommended [58][59] Summary by Directory 1. Sugar Market Analysis 1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou sugar futures adjusted this week with a weekly decline of 1.16%, while ICE sugar futures fluctuated at a low level with a weekly increase of 0.36% [9] 1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - Not detailed in the provided text 1.3 Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - For August 2025, Guangxi's sugar sales are expected to be 35 - 40 tons, similar to 36 tons in the same period last year; Yunnan's sugar sales are expected to be 13 - 16 tons, less than last month [58] 1.4 Sugar Import Situation - In July 2025, sugar imports were 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar October contract price of 16.5 cents per pound, Brazil's in - quota import cost is 4,539 yuan per ton and out - of - quota is 5,769 yuan per ton; Thailand's in - quota import cost is 4,580 yuan per ton and out - of - quota is 5,822 yuan per ton [23] 1.5 Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar season, the industrial inventory in July was approximately 1.6123 million tons, a decrease of 99,500 tons compared to the same period last year [26] 1.6 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 17,284, a decrease of 1,331 from last week. The number of warehouse receipts was 17,284 and valid forecasts were 0 [34] 1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of July 2025, the cumulative crushing volume was 306 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.57%, and sugar production was 19.268 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.76% [38] 1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern part of Brazil was 52.06%, compared to 49.13% in the same period last year [43] 1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - Brazil's sugar exports in July 2025 were 3.5937 million tons, a decrease of 4.6% compared to the same period last year [45] 1.10 International Main Producing Areas' Weather Conditions - India has abundant precipitation; Brazil's main producing areas have less rainfall, which is beneficial for sugarcane pressing [52][54] 2.后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Domestic market: Zhengzhou sugar prices have been falling, mainly affected by the approaching delivery of the 2509 contract. After adjustment, the downside is limited supported by the peak season. International market: Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to potential supply reduction in Brazil and strong demand from Pakistan and China. Short - term trading is recommended [58][59]