苹果周报：高位运行，等待新季苹果指引-20250831

Report Title - High-level operation, awaiting guidance from the new season of apples —— Guoxin Futures Apple Weekly Report, August 31, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The apple futures main contract AP2510 rose strongly this week. Cold storage inventory is lower than the same period last year, with concentrated supply in Shandong. The destocking rate is high and the export volume in July increased month-on-month. New season apple bagging numbers are slightly lower than the previous season, and the purchase price of early-maturing apples in the northwest is higher than last year, which may support the opening price of late-maturing Red Fuji. The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the operation suggestion is to take a bullish view on the fluctuations [8][36] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the apple futures main contract AP2510 rose strongly [8] 2. Supply-side Situation - As of August 28, 2025, the total remaining cold storage apples in the country were 353,500 tons, the lowest in the past five years. Shandong had 236,200 tons and Shaanxi had 82,400 tons [13] 3. Demand-side Situation - As of August 28, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio was about 2.68%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.38 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 2.22 percentage points, with a destocking rate of 95.79%. In July 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 53,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 44.95% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.39%. The export volume is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. As of August 29, the mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable, but the number of cold storage merchants was small, the transaction was average, and the shipment speed was slow [18][21][32] 4. Outlook for the Future - Pay attention to the production performance of the new season of apples. The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the operation suggestion is to take a bullish view on the fluctuations [36]