Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guoxin Futures Non-ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated August 31, 2025 [3] Group 2: Core View - The report states that the market is at the bottom range and will continue to fluctuate. The US market anticipates Fed policy easing with over 80% probability of a September rate - cut. In China, macro - policies will continue to exert force. The refined nickel market has a supply surplus, the nickel ore market is calm with ample supply, the nickel sulfate price is weak, and the stainless - steel market has a slightly improved profit and demand expectation but weak reality and slow de - stocking. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,600 to 13,500 yuan/ton [2][36] Group 3: Market Review - This part shows the trend of the main price contracts of the domestic and foreign nickel futures markets through a chart of nickel futures closing prices (main contract) from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [7][8] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Upstream - It presents the China's nickel ore port inventory through a chart of China's imported nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines on a monthly basis, with the inventory range from 0 to 6 million tons [12][13] Midstream - Electrolytic nickel price: A chart shows the price of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [15][16] - Nickel sulfate price: A chart shows the average price of nickel sulfate in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 70,000 yuan/ton [17][18] - Ferronickel import volume and price: Charts show China's monthly ferronickel import volume (ranging from 0 to 1 million tons) and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel (ranging from 0 to 1,800 yuan/nickel) from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025 [19][20] Downstream - Stainless - steel price: A chart shows the closing price of stainless - steel futures (continuous) from 0 to 25,000 yuan/ton [21][22] - Stainless - steel futures positions: A chart shows the stainless - steel futures positions from 0 to 400,000 lots [23][24] - Wuxi stainless - steel inventory: Charts show the Wuxi stainless - steel inventory and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel inventory, both ranging from 0 to 800,000 tons [25][26] - Power and energy - storage battery production: Charts show the monthly production of power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total monthly production of power and energy - storage batteries in China, both ranging from 0 to 140,000 MWh [28][29] - New - energy vehicle production: A chart shows the monthly production of new - energy vehicles in China, ranging from 0 to 140,000 vehicles [30][31] Group 5: Future Outlook - In the US, on August 29, Fed Governor Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the September meeting and expected further cuts in the next 3 - 6 months. In China, the Politburo meeting on July 30 stated that macro - policies should continue to exert force. The Shanghai nickel market showed a fluctuating upward trend this week. The refined nickel market has a supply surplus, the nickel ore market is calm with ample supply, the nickel sulfate price is weak, and the stainless - steel market has a slightly improved profit and demand expectation but weak reality and slow de - stocking. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,600 to 13,500 yuan/ton [36]
国信期货有色（镍）周报：底部区间，持续震荡-20250831
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-30 23:51