油脂油料周报：多头平仓连棕油领跌油脂-20250831

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the international oil and fat market declined significantly, with domestic oils following suit. The bullish sentiment in the oil market cooled, and bulls left the market. In the protein meal market, CBOT soybeans oscillated at a high level, while the domestic continuous meal market weakened. The supply concerns for soybean meal in the long - term have slightly eased [6][72]. - Looking forward to the future, in the protein meal market, the US soybean production area faces low - temperature and drought conditions, and the domestic oil mills' operating rate remains high with slow inventory reduction. In the oil market, international crude oil drags down US soybean oil, and palm oil is under pressure. The domestic oil market may further decline in the short term [137]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Market Trends - CBOT soybeans oscillated at a high level this week. After a decline on Monday, they oscillated narrowly in the following days. The good - rate of US soybeans continued to rise, increasing the expectation of a bumper harvest and pressuring the market. The new - year export sales of US soybeans reached a new high, but the absence of Chinese buyers restricted the increase. The domestic continuous meal market weakened, with the opening rate of oil mills slightly increasing and soybean meal inventory rising steadily. Under the pressure of oil mills to urge提货 at the end of the month, the trading was weak, and bulls left the market [6]. 3.1.2 US Soybean Export - As of the week ending August 21, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 382,806 tons. The total export inspection volume of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season has reached 96.6% of the revised annual export target, with a year - on - year increase of 11.5% [11]. 3.1.3 North American Market - US Soybean Planting Progress - As of August 24, 2025, the average good - rate of US soybeans in 18 states was 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. The pod - setting rate was 89%, and the defoliation rate was 4% [22]. 3.1.4 North American Weather - In the Midwest, sporadic heavy rains maintained local excessive soil moisture, while dry weather in many other areas led to a decline in surface soil moisture. In the west, hot and dry weather was conducive to crop maturity. In the prairie region, precipitation was limited, and the temperature varied widely [26][32]. 3.1.5 Domestic and International Oilseed Markets - The low - temperature weather in the Midwest will continue until the end of August and early September. A bulk carrier rented by Bunge is expected to transport Argentine soybean meal to China. Brazil's August soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts have been adjusted. China needs to purchase a large amount of soybeans by the end of this year, but it faces challenges. The soybean processing margins in South America have declined, and the processing volume forecasts in Argentina have been adjusted [35][36][38]. 3.1.6 Soybean - Port Inventory and Pressing Profit - This week, the domestic spot and futures pressing profits declined. As of the end of this week, the inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 6.8244 million tons, and it is expected to be 5.04 million tons by the end of next week [47]. 3.1.7 Soybean - Import Cost and Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans for November shipment is 4,665 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans is 4,058 yuan/ton. The Brazilian premium has slightly declined this week [50]. 3.1.8 Soybean Meal - Soybean Operating Rate and Soybean Meal Inventory - As of the end of the 34th week (August 23), the average operating rate of domestic major soybean oil mills was 64.78%, an increase of 0.24% from last week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.058 million tons, an increase of 0.6 tons from last week [55]. 3.1.9 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Weekly Apparent Consumption - The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 34th week was 1.8992 million tons, slightly higher than that of last week [59]. 3.1.10 Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed Operating Rate and Pressing Volume - As of the end of the 34th week, the operating rate of domestic major imported rapeseed processing enterprises was 11.01%, a decrease of 0.98% from last week. The pressing volume of imported rapeseed was 45,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from last week [65]. 3.2 Fats and Oils Market Analysis 3.2.1 Market Trends - This week, international oils declined significantly. US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil fell from last week's highs. The EPA's approval of small refineries' exemption applications for bio - fuel blending and the decline of international crude oil led to the decline of US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil was also dragged down, and domestic oils followed the international market down [72]. 3.2.2 International Oil Information - From August 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil exports increased year - on - year. Brazil has adjusted the bio - diesel blending ratio, and the demand for bio - diesel has changed. Malaysia is seeking to exempt palm kernel oil from the SST tax, and Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil and its by - products from September [75][76][77]. 3.2.3 Southeast Asian Weather - Typhoon Kajiki brought abundant rainfall to the Philippines and surrounding areas, and Thailand also had monsoon rainfall. The temperature was close to normal [83]. 3.2.4 Three Major Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Price Trends - The prices of the three major vegetable oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) declined this week, with the overall trend of rapeseed oil > soybean oil > palm oil. The soybean - palm oil price difference rebounded from a low level [110]. 3.2.5 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the end of the 34th week, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.5924 million tons, a decrease of 23,500 tons from last week. The inventory of soybean oil increased, while that of palm oil and rapeseed oil decreased [94]. 3.2.6 Oil Basis Analysis - The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends. The soybean - palm oil price difference rebounded slightly, and the oil - meal ratio of soybeans and rapeseeds also rebounded slightly [110][114]. 3.2.7 Arbitrage Relationships - The oil - meal ratio of soybeans and rapeseeds rebounded slightly this week. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated narrowly. The 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal continued to decline, the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil rebounded slightly, and the 9 - 1 spread of palm oil declined slightly [114][120][123]. 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 Technical Analysis - For the main contracts, the short - term indicators of soybean meal are bearish, while the medium - and long - term indicators are entangled. The short - term indicators of rapeseed meal are bearish, the medium - term indicators are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled. The short - term indicators of soybean oil are bearish, the medium - term indicators are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled. The short - term indicators of palm oil are entangled, and the medium - and long - term indicators are bullish. The short - term indicators of rapeseed oil are entangled, the medium - term indicators are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled [136]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In the protein meal market, the US soybean production area faces low - temperature and drought, and the domestic oil mills' operating rate remains high. In the oil market, international crude oil drags down US soybean oil, and palm oil is under pressure. The domestic oil market may further decline in the short term [137].