牛市二阶段：聚焦AI应用的赔率交易

Core Insights - The current market trend is focused on AI applications, particularly in the hardware sector, with significant gains observed in overseas optical modules and PCBs since June, followed by a resurgence in domestic computing power led by Cambrian in mid-August [1][2] - The report suggests that while the computing power market is not expected to end soon, there is growing profit-taking pressure, leading to a cautious sentiment among risk-averse investors [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of exploring downstream applications as a viable investment strategy, particularly in sectors like AI+ innovative drugs, AI+ military, AIGC, edge AI, humanoid robots, and intelligent driving [2][3] Market Dynamics - The lag in downstream AI applications is attributed to a lack of short-term certainty, with no breakout products or smooth business models emerging, resulting in insufficient visibility for listed companies [2][3] - Historical trends from the "Internet+" era indicate that the eventual explosion of AI applications is inevitable, with the potential for greater market space compared to upstream hardware [2][3] - The report highlights that the current market environment, characterized by ample liquidity, could trigger significant movements in AI applications if upstream hardware experiences a correction [2][3] Historical Context - The report draws parallels between the current AI wave and the "Internet+" trend from a decade ago, noting that the latter saw a transition from hardware-led growth to application-driven expansion [3][4] - The timeline of the "Internet+" boom from 2013 to 2015 illustrates that the application side experienced a longer duration of growth compared to the hardware sector, suggesting a similar trajectory for AI applications [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends positioning in AI application sectors as a "call option," suggesting proactive investments in areas with mid-term certainty in industry logic [2][3][17] - Specific sectors highlighted for potential investment include AI+ innovative drugs, AI+ military, AIGC, humanoid robots, and intelligent driving, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing AI trend [20][17] Data Insights - As of June 2025, the average daily token consumption in China surpassed 30 trillion, reflecting a 300-fold increase since early 2024, while active users of AI-native apps reached 270 million, marking a 536.8% year-on-year growth [8][10] - The report provides a comparative analysis of performance across various sectors, indicating that upstream hardware has significantly outperformed downstream applications since the onset of the current market dynamics [30][15]