大炼化周报：“金九”旺季临近，长丝下游需求有所改善-20250831

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [144]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for long filaments is improving as the "golden September" season approaches, indicating a potential uptick in downstream demand [2]. - The Brent crude oil price averaged $68.34 per barrel as of August 29, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.26% [2][3]. - Domestic and international refining project price differentials are being tracked, with domestic price differentials at 2408.08 CNY/ton, down 0.51% week-on-week, while international differentials are at 1080.85 CNY/ton, down 0.47% [2][3]. Refining Sector Summary - The report notes that U.S. tariffs on Indian goods have raised market concerns, but a decrease in U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories has supported prices [2]. - As of August 29, 2025, Brent and WTI crude prices were $68.12 and $64.01 per barrel, respectively, showing slight increases from the previous week [13]. - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly decreased, while overseas prices have generally increased [2]. Chemical Sector Summary - Chemical prices are generally weak, with price differentials narrowing, although some products have seen structural demand-driven price improvements [2]. - Polyethylene prices have increased slightly, while polypropylene prices have weakened, leading to an overall narrowing of price differentials [53]. - EVA prices have risen significantly due to increased procurement in the photovoltaic sector, with price differentials widening [53]. Polyester Sector Summary - Polyester product prices have seen slight increases due to raw material price support, with PX costs strengthening [88]. - The report indicates that the supply of polyester long filaments has slightly decreased due to maintenance and operational issues, while demand is showing signs of improvement as the autumn season approaches [107]. - The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are reported at 6878.57 CNY/ton, 7135.00 CNY/ton, and 8028.57 CNY/ton, respectively [107]. Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of August 29, 2025, the stock price changes for six major refining companies were as follows: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+0.0%), Hengli Petrochemical (+2.98%), Dongfang Shenghong (+5.02%), Hengyi Petrochemical (+3.34%), Tongkun Co. (+2.80%), and Xin Fengming (+5.07%) [130]. - Over the past month, stock price changes were: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+6.71%), Hengli Petrochemical (+12.09%), Dongfang Shenghong (+7.90%), Hengyi Petrochemical (+6.39%), Tongkun Co. (+18.88%), and Xin Fengming (+24.84%) [130]. Industry Index Performance - The report states that the Cinda Refining Index has increased by 43.20% since its inception, outperforming the oil and petrochemical industry index, which rose by 22.26% [133].