Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Feihe (06186.HK) with a target price of HKD 5.1 [1][4]. Core Views - The company reported a 9.36% year-on-year decline in revenue for H1 2025, totaling CNY 9.151 billion, and a 46.66% drop in net profit to CNY 1 billion. The interim dividend declared is HKD 0.1209 per share, amounting to CNY 1 billion [1][4]. - The company is facing significant operational pressure due to intensified competition and proactive inventory reduction, which has led to a decrease in market share [4]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 61.58%, down 6.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in sales structure and losses from raw milk powder [4]. - The company is implementing various measures to adjust operations, including inventory management and the introduction of new customized products, aiming for a recovery in performance [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2024A: CNY 20.749 billion - 2025E: CNY 18.792 billion - 2026E: CNY 19.835 billion - 2027E: CNY 20.469 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: 5.6%, -9.4%, 5.5%, 3.2% [1][10]. - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2024A: CNY 3.570 billion - 2025E: CNY 2.190 billion - 2026E: CNY 3.001 billion - 2027E: CNY 3.384 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: 5.3%, -38.7%, 37.1%, 12.8% [1][10]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024: CNY 0.39 - 2025: CNY 0.24 - 2026: CNY 0.33 - 2027: CNY 0.37 [1][10]. - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025E: 17 - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratios for 2025E: 1.4 [1][10]. Market Performance - The current share price is HKD 4.39, with a market capitalization of HKD 39.8 billion [2]. - The stock has experienced a 12-month high of HKD 6.80 and a low of HKD 3.34 [2]. Strategic Adjustments - The company is focusing on health-oriented strategies and actively promoting reforms to address operational challenges, including inventory adjustments and the launch of new products [4]. - The company aims to improve channel profitability and market presence through these strategic initiatives [4].
中国飞鹤（06186）：经营务实调整，股息率成支撑