国际时政周评：美联储独立性或受挑战，特朗普关税再被判违法

Group 1: U.S. Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that Trump's tariffs on multiple countries are illegal, with the ruling effective until October 14, allowing time for an appeal to the Supreme Court[8] - India has implemented an additional 25% tariff on exports to the U.S., raising the total tariff on Indian exports to the U.S. to 50%[8] - The U.S. has ended the $800 de minimis exemption for packages from all countries, impacting small-value imports[8] Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence Concerns - Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed and increasing market volatility[15] - Following the announcement, COMEX gold prices rose nearly 3% due to heightened risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed[15] - The legal battle over Cook's dismissal may reach the Supreme Court, which has previously indicated that the President cannot arbitrarily remove Fed members[15] Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions and Future Outlook - The upcoming SCO summit on August 31 - September 1 will feature high-level discussions among leaders from China, Russia, and India[16] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly between Russia and Ukraine, are expected to continue with a "negotiation while fighting" approach[21] - The U.S. is likely to intensify its 232 investigations into key industries such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical minerals, as part of its tariff strategy[12]