固定收益专题研究：本轮牛市，可转债怎么看？

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current A-share bull market is highly isomorphic to the 2014 liquidity bull market, with a "policy - liquidity - industry" resonance driving the index and risk appetite. The market has completed valuation repair and entered a period of capital - sentiment resonance, with technology and growth leading the rise. In the future, the market will shift from valuation - driven to profit - driven, and the structure will spread from single - point breakthrough to balance [5][29]. - The convertible bond market shows a pattern of decreasing inventory and strong demand. The valuation still has room to rise, but it is difficult to repeat the previous high in 2015. The trading is more active, and the pricing has shifted from "bond - like" to "stock - like". It is recommended to follow the trend, control the rhythm, and carefully select bonds around the technology and mainstream sectors [5][40][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Similarities between the 2014 Bull Market and the Current Bull Market - Stock - market and fundamentals "decoupling": In 2014, the macro - fundamentals were in a period of economic transformation, with domestic demand contraction and inventory "trap", but the A - share market rose against the trend. In 2025, the economy also has strong transformation demands, and the stock market has recovered first while the fundamentals are still weak [6][8]. - Policy concentration: In 2014, the bull market was driven by monetary easing, real - estate relaxation, reform, and industrial policies. In 2025, the policy continues the combination framework of 2014, with "liquidity + reform + industry" forming a resonance to promote the stock market [10][14]. - Technical indicator钝化: In the 2014 bull market, technical indicators such as RSI, KDJ, and MACD showed obvious "passivation" during the rapid rise of the market. The same phenomenon has occurred since June 2025, with the traditional technical indicators failing in the short - term due to the strong trend driven by policy and liquidity [19][20]. - Stock - market overall trend: The 2014 - 2015 bull market had four clear - cut stages. The current bull market has gone through three stages since September 2024: valuation repair, sideways shock, and breakthrough upward. The overall trend is highly similar to that of 2014 [24][26][27]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Industry Review - 2014 Convertible Bond Market Review: - Structure: From 2014 to 2015, the convertible bond market changed from scale expansion to sharp contraction. In 2014, the convertible bond balance decreased due to the surge in conversion demand, and in 2015, a large number of bonds were redeemed early, resulting in a significant reduction in the remaining balance [31]. - Valuation: It went through three stages: low - level repair, rapid inflation, and high - level adjustment. The price and conversion premium rate first increased and then decreased, and finally returned to a reasonable level [33]. - Market trading: It showed a process of "bond - support - stock - activation - full - trading - orderly decline". The trading volume first increased and then decreased with the development of the market [36]. - Current Convertible Bond Market Situation: - Structure: As of August 27, 2025, 89 convertible bonds have been delisted this year, and the remaining scale has decreased to 641.451 billion yuan. Although the issuance speed has increased slightly, the supply is still tight due to the large - scale early redemption, and the supply - demand contradiction will be more prominent if the equity market continues to rise [40]. - Valuation: On August 22, 2025, the median conversion premium rate was 26.40%, and the median price was 133.85 yuan, lower than the extreme range in 2015. Compared with the peak in 2021, the current price is higher and the valuation is lower, and there is still room for the price and premium rate to rise if the equity market continues to rise [42]. - Market trading: Bond - type funds have increased their allocation, and the pricing has shifted from "bond - like" to "stock - like", with stronger linkage with the underlying stocks. The trading volume and turnover rate have increased, and scarcity and optionality have become the valuation anchors [5][45]. - Subsequent Convertible Bond Strategies: - The current convertible bond market is in a tight supply - demand balance. It is recommended to follow the trend, control the rhythm, and carefully select bonds around the main lines and industrial data. Pay attention to the risks of high premium and over - crowdedness. - Focus on convertible bonds with a price below 130 yuan, such as Yuxing Convertible Bond, Shanlu Convertible Bond, etc. - Look for double - low opportunities after the "par + valuation" double - kill, such as Hefeng Convertible Bond, Tian 23 Convertible Bond, etc. - Consider bank convertible bonds as potential safe - havens for funds, such as Pufa Convertible Bond, Ziyin Convertible Bond, etc. [47][48]