能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告-20250831

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report - Report Date: August 31, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Kefang - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019111 - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Report Core View - This week, fuel oil prices rose significantly at the beginning of the week but quickly fell as delivery issues were resolved. Overseas, Middle Eastern high-sulfur fuel oil exports remained high in August, and the high-sulfur market in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to be weak in the short term due to weak power generation and refining demand, with low import volumes in the Middle East and China. Only the fact that Russia's export volume has not significantly recovered provides some support for the valuation. Domestically, the issue of the delivery warehouse being sanctioned has been resolved with a significant increase in on - exchange warehouse receipts, which will continue to suppress the FU futures price. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the Asia - Pacific spot market is still abundant. Kuwait and Indonesia have increased their exports of low - sulfur fuel oil to the Asia - Pacific this month, and Japanese refineries are gradually resuming production, increasing spot supply and suppressing spot prices. Domestically, the newly issued export quota is the core factor affecting the futures price trend. If the quota is too low, it may support short - term prices; if the quota increases significantly year - on - year, it means that future port spot supply will be abundant, and the price of near - month contracts will continue to be suppressed. - Valuation: FU is valued at 2750 - 3000, and LU is valued at 3400 - 3600. - Strategy: - Unilateral: FU will continue to be weak in the short term, and LU will fluctuate in a narrow range. - Inter - period: The near - term spread of FU may continue to decline; LU will maintain its current structure. - Inter - variety: The crack spread of FU has fallen to the historical average and may rise in the future; the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term. [4] Summary by Directory Supply - Refinery Operation: The report presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil atmospheric and vacuum distillation units), independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 through charts. - Global Refinery Maintenance: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU units, hydrocracking units, FCC units, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 through charts. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: The report shows the monthly production of fuel oil in China, the monthly production of low - sulfur fuel oil by Chinese refineries, and the monthly domestic commercial volume of fuel oil from 2018 - 2025 through charts. [6][8][19] Demand - Domestic and Overseas Fuel Oil Demand Data: The report presents the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 through charts. [22] Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: The report shows the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 through charts. [25] Price and Spread - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Price: It presents the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, and 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025 through charts. - European Regional Spot FOB Price: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo in New York Harbor, 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2025 through charts. - US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Price: The report provides relevant price data through charts. - Paper and Derivative Prices: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swaps, and Singapore 380 bunker fuel swaps, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2025 through charts. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: It presents the viscosity spread and high - low sulfur spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 through charts. - Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread: It shows the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 through charts. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread: It presents the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025 through charts. [33][37][45][47][57][59][64] Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: The report shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 through charts. - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It presents the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions through charts. - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions through charts. [68][73][75] Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - The report provides the internal - external spreads of 380 - grade and 0.5% fuel oil spot, as well as the internal - external spreads between FU and LU futures contracts and Singapore fuel oil from August 25 - 29, 2025. It also shows the historical internal - external spreads of different fuel oil products through charts. Additionally, it presents the changes in the trading volume and open interest of FU and LU, as well as the changes in the number of warehouse receipts through charts. [79][83][89]