国泰君安期货原油周度报告-20250831

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's view on crude oil is to hold long positions and positive spreads with a light position [5][6]. - In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see. There may still be opportunities for a repair rebound in September. Brent and WTI may challenge $70 - 75 per barrel, and SC may challenge 520 - 560 yuan per barrel. In the medium - to - long - term, the downward pressure on oil prices is relatively large. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [6]. - The logic for the short - term view is that aside from geopolitical and trade - war uncertainties, there may be a small - scale rebound in September at the end of the peak season, mainly due to OPEC+'s less - than - expected production increase, a potential decline in U.S. shale oil production (to be verified), and relatively low inventory centers in the U.S. and Europe. However, the rebound space may be limited due to high inventories in Asia and the expectation of future inventory accumulation. The overseas macro - market risk appetite has stabilized. Attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in Russian oil exports due to potential sanctions, with a relatively low probability of short - term interruption. The medium - to - long - term bearish view is mainly based on the large long - term oversupply pressure caused by production increases from OPEC+, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, etc., and inventory accumulation is difficult to disprove [6]. - In terms of valuation, the short - term valuation is at a medium level, and there may still be a chance of a rebound in the second half of the third quarter, but the space is limited. For trading strategies, in the short - term, hold long positions with a light position; in the long - term, short at high prices and trend - short. For inter - period trading, focus on positive spreads (buy SC10, sell 11 and 12). For inter - variety trading, the EFS spread and SC - Dubai may reverse [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - Pay attention to the Russia - U.S. negotiations and the development of the Russia - Ukraine situation [11]. - Overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission [17]. - The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing has rebounded [22]. 2. Supply - Global crude oil supply shows obvious regional and oil - type differentiation. Light sweet oil (WTI/Brent) is under price pressure due to the weak economy in Europe and the U.S. and the uncertainty of the Fed's policy. Brent is rarely at a discount to Dubai (-$0.09 per barrel). Medium - sulfur crude oil (such as Russian Urals and Middle East Dubai) maintains a tight balance due to OPEC+'s compensatory production cuts and restricted exports from Iran and Venezuela. Heavy crude oil (Canadian AWB, Iraqi Basra Heavy) is supported by the residue chemical demand of Chinese refineries, but the resumption of U.S. imports from Venezuela has alleviated some of the tightness. Geographically, Middle East exports are stable, the discount of African light oil (such as Nigerian) has widened due to European demand shifting to the Americas, and Eastern Europe (Druzhba pipeline) faces a risk of supply interruption due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - The production and export situations of various countries are as follows: Iraq's production is limited, with only 3.9 million barrels per day in July (target of 4.12 million barrels per day), which is bullish. The UAE's production exceeds 3 million barrels per day, and its export volume reached 3.31 million barrels per day in July (close to a historical high), which is bullish. It plans to maintain the Upper Zakum oil field (with a capacity of 1 million barrels per day) in October, with an expected production cut of 150,000 - 200,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's shipping volume in September dropped to 1.43 million barrels per day (a five - month low), which is bearish. Saudi Aramco's exports to China decreased by 160,000 barrels per day in July due to a pricing strategy error. Guyana's new production, Golden Arrowhead, will increase to 200,000 barrels per day, but weak European demand has led to a $3 per barrel price drop (Liza is now at a $1.25 per barrel discount compared to North Sea Dated), which is bearish. Malaysia's shadow fleet is still active, with 52 sanctioned oil tankers conducting ship - to - ship transfers at the EOPL anchorage, mainly flowing to China, which is neutral. Russia's top three buyers are India, China, and Turkey. India imported 1.82 million barrels per day of Urals crude oil in the first half of the year, accounting for 90% of Russia's seaborne exports. Under EU sanctions, the FOB discount of Urals in the Baltic Sea has widened to $13 per barrel compared to North Sea Dated, which is neutral. India continues to import (with a loading volume of about 1.5 million barrels per day in August), and the CIF discount in India has narrowed to $2.80 per barrel (compared to North Sea Dated). Norway's medium - acid crude oil (such as Johan Sverdrup) prices have fallen due to weakened seasonal demand, which is bearish [7]. - The U.S. production reached 13.42 million barrels per day in July, and Canada's was 4.7 million barrels per day, with a total of 18.12 million barrels per day in North America, which is bullish. Kazakhstan's production has continuously exceeded the quota, and the supply of CPC Blend has increased, which is bearish. Chevron may resume imports from Venezuela, improving the heavy - oil supply in the U.S. Gulf. The U.S. Chevron resumed imports in August, alleviating the tightness of refineries in the Gulf of Mexico, which is bearish. China has a workaround for importing Iranian crude oil through the Malacca Linggi Port, with an estimated actual supply of 1.25 million barrels per day from January to May (not reflected in customs data), which is bullish. China's imports from Malaysia decreased by 400,000 barrels per day in July due to the doubled cost of re - exporting Iranian crude oil through Malaysia. Syria restarted its crude oil exports for the first time since 2011, selling "Syrian Heavy" crude oil (22 - 25.72°API, 4.2% sulfur) at a $10 per barrel discount compared to North Sea Dated, which is neutral. Nigeria's light - crude - oil discount has widened (European demand has shifted to U.S. WTI and Brazilian crude oil). In September 2025, it will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day, completely lifting the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day since November 2023, and the UAE's quota will increase by 300,000 barrels per day. This may lead to a market surplus of 1.6 million barrels per day in the second half of the year, and a further surplus of 1 million barrels per day in 2026. The export volume in August was the same as that in Q1 because the compensatory production cut (2.2 million barrels per day) offset the production - increase plan, which is neutral [8]. - The U.S. shale oil drilling number and production have rebounded [58]. 3. Demand - The demand market shows regional and oil - product structural differences. Asia (especially China and India) remains the core of growth. China's apparent demand remains stable (16.6 million barrels per day), and independent refineries have shifted to fuel - oil processing due to exhausted quotas. India supplements Brazilian crude oil through long - term contracts, but Russian oil still has a cost advantage. Demand in Europe and the U.S. is differentiated: U.S. gasoline consumption has decreased by 4% year - on - year, but distillates (diesel/aviation kerosene) are supported by seasonal agricultural and industrial demand. The ARA diesel inventory in Europe has dropped to an 18 - month low (12.9 million barrels), reflecting a structural shortage under the closure of refining capacity. In the long term, the upgrade of Chinese refineries (such as residue chemical processing) will increase the demand for high - sulfur oil, while European low - carbon policies will suppress fossil - fuel consumption [6]. - The demand situations of various countries and regions are as follows: In China, the gasoline cracking spread has risen to a 16 - month high (the Singapore 92R crack spread is $12.08 per barrel) due to reduced exports (175,000 barrels per day in August compared to 300,000 barrels per day in July) and refinery maintenance. China receives Iranian crude oil through STS in Malaysia (with an actual import of about 1.25 million barrels per day, not reflected in customs data). In July, the apparent demand remained at a high level of 16.6 million barrels per day, with a 150,000 - barrel - per - day decrease in diesel demand offset by aviation kerosene and LPG. Independent refineries have shifted to processing diluted bitumen (150,000 barrels per day imported in July) and fuel oil (280,000 barrels per day) due to restricted Iranian crude - oil imports. The petrochemical demand in Asia is strong, with an implied consumption of 1 million barrels per day of chemical raw materials in the "other unreported" category. In India, it continues to import Russian Urals, with the arrival volume in August decreasing by 20% year - on - year as Russian oil has shifted to China (exports to China increased by 8% in July). It will resume purchasing Russian Urals crude oil in October due to an expanded discount of $3.05 per barrel (delivered at the west coast of India). It has signed a long - term contract with Brazil for the first time (6 million barrels from 2025 - 2026), but it cannot replace the cost advantage of Russian oil. In the U.S., refineries are operating at a high rate (the crude - oil inventory only increased by 2.1 million barrels in July), but gasoline demand has decreased by 4% year - on - year. The distillate inventory has increased by 9.8 million barrels, reflecting a strong diesel cracking spread (summer agricultural and industrial demand). In Europe, the ARA diesel inventory has dropped to an 18 - month low (12.9 million barrels) due to the closure of 4 million barrels per day of refining capacity. The demand for Russian CPC blended oil has slowed down before the maintenance season in Europe. In North America, the demand in July decreased by 4.1% year - on - year (to 8.916 million barrels per day) due to the popularization of hybrid vehicles improving energy efficiency. The fuel - oil inventory in the Gulf region has reached a 35 - year low (8.8 million barrels), but the gasoline inventory has increased. The North Sea Dated has dropped to $68.21 per barrel, and WTI has remained stable at $63.92 per barrel. Dubai has risen against the trend by $1.18 per barrel to $69.80 per barrel due to alternative demand from Iran. Affected by the weak European economy (Germany's contraction in Q2, the French government crisis) and geopolitical conflicts, the EFS spread with Dubai has dropped to -$0.09 per barrel on August 27, the first discount since April [9]. - The refinery operating rates in the U.S. and Europe are seasonally declining. The operating rate of China's major refineries is declining, while that of local refineries is rising [60]. 4. Inventory - U.S. commercial inventories are declining, and the inventory in the Cushing area is declining and significantly lower than the historical average [63]. - Refining margins are oscillating strongly. European diesel inventories are rebounding, and gasoline inventories are being depleted. Domestic refined - oil margins are recovering [68][70][71]. 5. Price, Spread, and Position - The North American basis has rebounded slightly. The month - spread has dropped to a low level. SC is stronger than the external market, and the month - spread has stabilized. The net long - position has declined [75][76][77][79].