铸造铝合金产业链周报-20250831

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly this week, reaching a high of 20,555 yuan/ton. As the traditional consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, downstream demand may see a slight recovery, but the degree of demand improvement remains to be further observed. The current industry operating rate shows a divergence. Large enterprises have relatively abundant orders and a slightly increased operating rate, while small and medium-sized enterprises face more severe problems such as raw material shortages and production losses, with some reduction or suspension of production. In addition, the policy of canceling tax rebates has been fermenting this week, and the market is full of wait-and-see sentiment. Some enterprises are considering adopting a more cautious business strategy and plan to reduce or suspend production to avoid the risks of policy uncertainty. Overall, both cost support and policy pressure strongly support the price of recycled aluminum, and the price of cast aluminum alloy may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. - As of August 29, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories + social inventory increased by 0.34 million tons from the previous week to 11.58 million tons, and the inventory remains at a high level. In the upstream, the amount of waste generated at the end in August was still lower than expected, and the supply of waste aluminum raw materials was limited. In the downstream, in the fourth week of August (August 18 - August 24), domestic automobile sales were 473,000 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of nearly 10%, and fuel vehicles performed better than new energy vehicles. Overall, the effect of the trade-in policy is prominent, and the fourth batch of funds will be released as planned in October, which will help stabilize consumer confidence and continuously boost automobile consumption. With the arrival of "Golden September and Silver October", the growth of automobile sales is expected to improve month-on-month [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side Waste Aluminum - Waste aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium-to-high level in history [10]. - Waste aluminum imports are at a high level, with a relatively fast year-on-year growth rate. In July 2025, the import of aluminum waste and scrap was 16.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.68%, and the cumulative import was 117.27 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 8.35% [14]. - The scrap-to-primary aluminum price difference shows an oscillating trend [19]. Recycled Aluminum - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy increased slightly, and the spread between ADC12 and A00 converged significantly [26]. - The regional spread of cast aluminum alloy weakened, showing certain seasonal patterns [31]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy increased slightly, and the monthly operating rate continued to rise [36]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of waste aluminum, and the current estimated cost is above the break-even line [38]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy decreased, while the social inventory continued to increase [43]. - The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [47]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the production and inventory data are provided. The production shows certain fluctuations, and the factory inventory also varies by region [50][52]. Demand Side Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel vehicles declined, which was transmitted to the die-casting consumption [57].