铜产业链周度报告-20250831

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper fundamentals are improving, with downstream demand rising and raw material supply shortages affecting refined copper production. The macro - economy shows resilience, and the good US economic data and demand resilience boost market risk sentiment. The price is expected to rise, with a strength analysis of being relatively strong and a price range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [3]. - In trading strategies, with the marginal improvement of fundamentals and a slight recovery in macro - sentiment, hold long positions unilaterally. For spread trading, the low domestic inventory is conducive to positive carry arbitrage. Given the low copper volatility and increasing macro - disturbance risks in the future, pay attention to opportunities to go long on volatility [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: COMEX copper volatility dropped significantly, while the volatility of SHFE copper, INE copper, and LME copper increased. COMEX copper price volatility is around 15%, a significant drop from before [14]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper weakened, and the LME copper spot discount was large. The SHFE copper 09 - 10 spread decreased from a premium of 40 yuan/ton on August 22 to a premium of 30 yuan/ton on August 29. The LME0 - 3 discount on August 29 was 80.26 US dollars/ton, slightly wider than the previous week. The COMEX copper C - structure was stable [16][17]. - Position: COMEX copper positions decreased, SHFE copper and INE copper positions increased, and LME copper positions remained flat. SHFE copper positions increased by 24,600 lots to 486,200 lots [19]. - Fund and Industry Positions: CFTC non - commercial long net positions increased. LME commercial short net positions decreased from 44,700 lots to 43,700 lots, and CFTC non - commercial long net positions increased from 26,032 lots on August 19 to 26,230 lots on August 26 [25]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium strengthened, and the bonded - zone copper premium recovered. The domestic copper spot premium widened from a premium of 150 yuan/ton on August 22 to a premium of 250 yuan/ton on August 29. The Yangshan Port copper premium recovered from 51 US dollars/ton on August 22 to 55 US dollars/ton on August 29 [29][31]. - Inventory: Global total inventory decreased, with domestic social inventory and bonded - zone inventory both decreasing. Global copper total inventory decreased from 605,600 tons on August 21 to 601,300 tons on August 28. Domestic social inventory decreased from 131,700 tons on August 21 to 127,100 tons on August 28, and bonded - zone inventory decreased from 79,300 tons to 75,100 tons [32][35]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio declined, weakening the logic of spot shortages overseas. The SHFE copper 09 contract position - to - inventory ratio is at a neutral level compared to the same period in history [36]. 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Imports increased year - on - year, but processing fees weakened marginally. In July 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.5601 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.45%. The port inventory increased from 473,000 tons on August 22 to 550,000 tons on August 29. The spot TC on August 29 was - 41.48 US dollars/ton, with a smelting loss of 3,196 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from the previous week [39]. - Recycled Copper: Imports decreased year - on - year, and domestic production increased slightly. In July, recycled copper imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and domestic recycled copper production was 99,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.81%. The scrap - refined copper spread narrowed, and the import loss of recycled copper widened [41][46]. - Blister Copper: Imports increased, and processing fees were at a low level. In July, blister copper imports were 84,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.08%. The domestic processing fee was 800 yuan/ton, and the import processing fee was 95 US dollars/ton [51]. - Refined Copper: Production increased more than expected, imports increased, and the profit from copper spot imports expanded. In July, domestic refined copper production was 1.1743 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. In July, imports were 296,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56%. The profit from spot imports increased from 65.62 yuan/ton on August 22 to 190.84 yuan/ton on August 29 [56]. 3.3 Demand End - Capacity Utilization Rate: In July, the capacity utilization rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The copper tube capacity utilization rate in July was at a low level compared to the same period in history, and the copper plate, strip, and foil capacity utilization rate was at a neutral - low level. The wire and cable capacity utilization rate declined in the week of August 28 [59]. - Profit: Copper rod processing fees were at a neutral level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube processing fees were at a low level. As of August 29, the processing fee for copper rods in the power industry in East China was 725 yuan/ton, higher than 630 yuan/ton on August 22. The 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A special copper tubes on August 29 was 5,073 yuan/ton, higher than 5,071 yuan/ton on August 22 [64]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remained at a low level. In July, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level compared to the same period in history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level [65]. - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods decreased, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable increased. In July, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a neutral - high level compared to the same period in history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a neutral - low level [68]. 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: Apparent consumption was good, and power grid investment was an important support. From January to July, the cumulative actual consumption was 9.195 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.71%, and the apparent consumption was 9.2584 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.02%. The power grid investment from January to July was 331.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% [73]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production: In July, domestic air - conditioner production was 16.115 million units, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.01%. In July, domestic new - energy vehicle production was 1.243 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.32% [75].