工业硅：现货偏弱，逢高做空，多晶硅：现货真空期，关注下周消息面发酵

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon should be shorted at high prices, with an expected price range of 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton next week; polysilicon is recommended for observation, with an expected price range of 45000 - 51000 yuan/ton next week. The PS2511/PS2512 pair still maintains the inter - period reverse hedging idea, and upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon factories are recommended for selling hedging [6][7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Trends - Industrial silicon futures first fell and then rose this week, with spot prices falling; polysilicon futures oscillated weakly, with spot quotes rising. The industrial silicon futures closed at 8390 yuan/ton on Friday, and the SMM statistics showed that the price of 99 - silicon in Xinjiang was 8450 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous week), and that in Inner Mongolia was 8700 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan from the previous week). Polysilicon futures closed at 49555 yuan/ton on Friday, with upstream spot quotes firm but downstream purchases already sufficient [1] Supply and Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. Xinjiang and Yunnan's production increased marginally this week, but the resumption of production in the northwest was slow, and the subsequent resumption rhythm was crucial. Yunnan's resumption amplitude was small, partly due to the remaining time of the dry season and the production of non - standard products for futures. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 million tons this week, and the social inventory, factory inventory, and overall industry inventory also decreased [2] - Demand side: Short - term downstream demand increased marginally. The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. The weekly production schedule of polysilicon increased, but the silicon powder tender price did not rise. The weekly production of organic silicon decreased, with rigid demand for industrial silicon, and some monomer plants had the expectation of resuming production. The aluminum alloy sector had rigid orders, and the export market was cautious, with the possible crackdown on buying orders at the end of the year affecting exports [3] Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly output remained high. Some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang resumed production, while some in Xinjiang reduced production. The production schedule in August was expected to exceed 130,000 tons. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers decreased this week, with inventory transferred to downstream [3] - Demand side: After the profit of silicon wafers was repaired, the output increased. The short - term inventory of silicon wafers was relatively low, leading to price increases and production increases by some silicon wafer factories. The silicon wafer enterprises replenished a large amount of inventory, with an average raw material inventory of nearly 3 - 4 months, indicating a vacuum period for downstream replenishment in the next 1 - 2 months [5] Market Outlook - Industrial silicon: The upstream factories are resuming production, and the overall fundamental direction is bearish. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the trading idea is to short at high positions and take profits at low positions, not to hold for a long time [6] - Polysilicon: It has entered the procurement vacuum period, with weak fundamentals. Although some factories are expected to reduce production in September, the overall supply and demand are still in surplus, and the industry inventory is difficult to decrease. It is necessary to see greater production cuts from upstream to support the spot market. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to policy information [7]