白糖：关注区间下沿机会

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - International market: It is in a low-level consolidation phase, and there is an opportunity to re - evaluate Brazil's sugar production. The 24/25 sugar - making season has a significant global supply shortage, while the 25/26 season is expected to see a restorative increase in production and inventory in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. New York raw sugar is likely to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies [3][33] - Domestic market: It is in a range - bound consolidation, and there is an opportunity at the lower end of the range. In the 24/25 sugar - making season, the domestic market is expected to have continuous production increases and cost decreases. The import policy for syrup and premixed powder has tightened. Zhengzhou sugar follows the trend of raw sugar, and trading is centered around the import rhythm. The pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets continues. In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in the sugar yield rate in Guangxi and an increase in production costs [3][33] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review 3.1.1 International Market - Exchange rates: The US dollar index is 97.85 (previous value: 97.72), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.43 (previous value: 5.44) [1][5] - Commodity prices: WTI crude oil price is $64.01 per barrel (+0.38%), and the price of the active contract for New York raw sugar is 16.34 cents per pound (-0.61%) [1] - CFTC positions: As of August 26, long positions of funds decreased by 1,247 lots, short positions increased by 1,426 lots, and net long positions decreased by 2,673 lots to - 98,204 lots [1][15] - Production data: As of August 16, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar - making season was 22.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 million tons. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 34.9 million tons, compared with 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 season. OCSB data shows that Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [1] 3.1.2 Domestic Market - Price data: The spot quotation of Guangxi Group is 5,940 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan per ton; Zhengzhou sugar's main contract is reported at 5,604 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan per ton; the basis of the main contract increased slightly [2][14] - Production and consumption data: As of May, China's sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons. CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. For the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. As of July, China's cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 3.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 330,000 tons [2][14][27] 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook 3.2.1 International Market - Market trend: Low - level consolidation, with an opportunity to re - evaluate Brazil's production. The market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations. The 24/25 season has a significant supply shortage, while the 25/26 season is expected to see production increases and inventory accumulation. New York raw sugar is likely to oscillate at a low level [3][33] - Focus points: Brazil's production and export rhythm, and India's relevant industrial policies [3][33] 3.2.2 Domestic Market - Market trend: Range - bound consolidation, with an opportunity at the lower end of the range. The domestic market in the 24/25 season is expected to have continuous production increases and cost decreases. Zhengzhou sugar follows raw sugar, and trading is centered around the import rhythm. The 25/26 season is expected to have a decline in the sugar yield rate in Guangxi and an increase in production costs [3][33] - Focus points: The lower end of the price range [3][33] 3.3 Macro Data - Exchange rates: The US dollar index is 97.85 (previous value: 97.72), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.43 (previous value: 5.44) [5] - Crude oil: WTI crude oil price is $64.01 per barrel (+0.38%) [5] 3.4 Industry Data 3.4.1 Market Price and Trading Data - Price and basis: The price of the active contract for New York raw sugar is 16.34 cents per pound (-0.61%). The spot quotation of Guangxi Group is 5,940 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan per ton; Zhengzhou sugar's main contract is reported at 5,604 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan per ton; the basis of the main contract increased slightly [14] - Warehouse receipts: As of last weekend, the warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou white sugar were 13,916 lots [15] - CFTC positions: As of August 26, long positions of funds decreased by 1,247 lots, short positions increased by 1,426 lots, and net long positions decreased by 2,673 lots to - 98,204 lots [1][15] 3.4.2 Industry Supply and Demand Data - Global supply and demand: The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts a supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season (previous prediction: 4.88 million tons) [26] - Brazil: As of August 16, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative crushed sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 354 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.6%; sugar production was 22.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; alcohol production was 16.07 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 12%; the cumulative sugar - cane ratio for sugar production was 52.51%, compared with 49.14% in the same period of the previous year [26] - India: As of May 15, India's sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8 million tons. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 season will be 34.9 million tons, compared with 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 season [26] - Thailand: Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [27] - China: CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons (+100,000 tons), and imports will be 5 million tons; for the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons (+100,000 tons), and imports 5 million tons. Customs data shows that sugar imports in July 2025 were 740,000 tons, and the cumulative imports in the 24/25 season were 3.25 million tons. As of May, the national sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons, sales were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.52 million tons, and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69% [27]