能源化工胶版印刷纸周度报告-20250831

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on Offset Printing Paper - Report Date: August 31, 2025 - Report Author: Shi Yining from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - This week, the price of offset printing paper continued to decline under the pressure of复产 expectations. The main factors affecting the market price trend include the decline in the settlement price of some paper mills at the end of the month, the end of the printing work for textbooks and teaching materials for the autumn semester, cautious purchasing by dealers, and the general support of the cost side. Looking ahead, there is still a supply - demand contradiction in the market next week, and paper prices are expected to continue to decline [51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - The inventory days of domestic double - offset paper on Thursday this week increased by 1.04% compared with last Thursday, and the increase rate this week expanded by 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous week. The scale production lines maintained normal operation, but the willingness of dealers to take delivery decreased, and downstream printing factories mostly consumed inventory, resulting in continuous accumulation of paper mill inventory [6]. - The operating load rate of domestic double - offset paper this week was 48.69%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points, and the trend turned from decline to increase this week. Although the restarted production lines in Jiangsu were operating normally, some small and medium - sized production lines in Shandong and Henan had production cuts, limiting the recovery space of the industry's operating load [6]. Market Trend - The average price of 70g high - white double - offset paper on August 29 was 4825 yuan/ton, the same as yesterday and 100 yuan/ton lower than last week [9]. - In the spot market, the prices of various brands of 70g double - offset paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets decreased week - on - week. The pre - tax and after - tax gross profits also decreased week - on - week [10]. Supply - Demand Data Industry Capacity - In 2024, the domestic double - offset paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 57% [19]. Weekly Data - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry output was 163.6 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 48.7%. The sales volume was 160.0 thousand tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory was 347.8 thousand tons [24][29]. Import and Export - In June, the domestic double - offset paper import volume was about 12 thousand tons, and the export volume was about 62 thousand tons [35]. Inventory - From the monthly sample inventory data, both social inventory and enterprise inventory were mainly in the process of destocking [41]. Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [47]. Market Judgment - Supply: Domestically, the output and capacity utilization rate of the double - offset paper industry were 163.6 thousand tons and 48.7% respectively this week. In terms of imports, the import volume in July was about 12 thousand tons, continuing the previous low - import volume [51]. - Demand: Domestically, the sales volume of double - offset paper decreased month - on - month this week. In terms of exports, the export volume in July was about 62 thousand tons [51]. - Viewpoint: This week, the average market price of 70g wood - pulp high - white double - offset paper decreased by 1.35% month - on - month, and the decline rate expanded by 0.87 percentage points compared with last week. The average market price of 70g wood - pulp natural - white double - offset paper decreased by 0.76% month - on - month, and the decline rate expanded by 0.17 percentage points compared with last week. Looking ahead, there is still a supply - demand contradiction in the double - offset paper market next week, and paper prices are expected to continue to decline [51].