2025年8月PMI数据点评：三大指数均有回升，景气水平总体扩张

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, and structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement. There will be a continued shift in the stock - bond allocation, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 pct and a year - on - year increase of 0.3 pct, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level. Except for the consumer goods industry, other industries' PMIs increased month - on - month. With the implementation of consumption - stimulating policies, the consumer goods industry's PMI is expected to stabilize and rebound [4]. - From the perspective of component indices, the production index was 50.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 pct, and it has been in the expansion zone for 4 consecutive months, indicating an accelerated expansion of manufacturing production. The production and operation activity expectation index was 53.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 pct, rising for two consecutive months, showing a positive market expectation [4]. - In terms of enterprise scale, the PMIs of large and small enterprises increased month - on - month, and the PMI of large enterprises has been in the expansion zone for 4 consecutive months [5]. Non - manufacturing - In August, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 pct and a year - on - year flat, remaining in the expansion zone. The construction industry PMI decreased by 1.5 pct to the contraction zone due to adverse factors such as frequent extreme weather, while the service industry PMI increased by 0.5 pct to the highest point of the year, with an obvious improvement in the prosperity level [6]. - From the perspective of major classification indices, the new order index increased by 0.9 pct month - on - month, and the business activity expectation index increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month, indicating that service enterprises are relatively optimistic about the recent market development prospects [6]. Comprehensive - In August, the comprehensive PMI was 50.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 pct and a year - on - year increase of 0.4 pct, remaining in the expansion zone for 32 consecutive months, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [7]. Market - This week, the 10Y treasury bond active bond fluctuated in the range of 1.75% - 1.80%, and the 10Y state - owned development active bond fluctuated in the range of 1.83% - 1.89%. The bond market trading remained insensitive to economic data, with overall fragile sentiment and a stronger sensitivity to negative events than positive events [8].