有色金属大宗金属周报：国内库存回落叠加9月降息预期提升，铜价有望上行-20250831

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report indicates that copper prices are expected to rise due to a decrease in domestic inventory and an increase in the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The weekly price changes for copper are +1.54% (London), +0.91% (Shanghai), and +2.78% (New York). The report highlights the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's actions and the demand during the peak season of September and October [6][28]. - For aluminum, the report suggests that prices will remain volatile due to rising inventory levels. The current price of alumina has decreased by 1.24% to 3185 CNY/ton, and the operating rate for metallurgical-grade alumina has dropped to 82.4% [6][39]. - Lithium prices are expected to rebound as demand increases during the peak season, despite a recent decline in prices. The price of lithium carbonate has fallen by 5.07% to 80,000 CNY/ton [6][83]. - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to a decrease in raw material imports and an extension of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to a supply shortage in Q4 [6][97]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report notes that the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector has been strong, with the sector index rising by 7.16%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.32 percentage points [12][21]. - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. unemployment claims and core PCE inflation, which may impact market sentiment [10]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices have shown an upward trend, with London copper increasing by 1.54% and Shanghai copper by 0.91%. The report highlights a decrease in domestic copper inventory by 2.39% [25][28]. 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable, with current prices at 20,730 CNY/ton. The report notes a slight increase in aluminum production margins [39]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a minor increase, while zinc prices have fluctuated, with a significant drop in London zinc inventory [51][62]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have risen by 5.61% in London and 3.56% in Shanghai, while nickel prices have also shown positive movement [65][69]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices have decreased recently, but the report anticipates a recovery in prices due to increased demand in the upcoming peak season [83]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo and a decrease in imports [97].