PMI数据点评：PMI见底回升了吗？

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View In August, the PMI data showed a combination of "manufacturing at the bottom and non - manufacturing moderately recovering". Compared with the "double - weak" situation in July, the short - term economic downward risk may be alleviated. With the weakening of the impact of high - temperature and rainy weather, the continuous release of policy effects, and the influence of seasonal factors, the economy is expected to continue the recovery trend, and the manufacturing PMI in September is expected to improve month - on - month, which may weaken the downward driving force of long - term interest rates [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs August Manufacturing - The manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, continuing to expand. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprises' production and business activities [1]. - In terms of supply and demand, the production index was 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, with continuous expansion. The new order index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, with insufficient market demand. The new export order index was 47.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, with foreign demand hovering at a low level [2]. - In terms of prices, the purchase price index of major raw materials was 53.3%, up 1.8 percentage points, rising for three consecutive months and in the expansion range for two consecutive months. The ex - factory price index was 49.1%, up 0.8 percentage points, also rising for three consecutive months and reaching the highest point this year. It is expected that the year - on - year decline of PPI will continue to narrow, and the pressure on industrial product prices may be alleviated [2]. August Non - manufacturing - The service industry business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points, reaching the highest point this year. Industries such as capital market services, railway transportation, and aviation transportation were in a high - level boom range, while industries such as retail and real estate had weak prosperity. The business activity expectation index was 57.0%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating that service enterprises were optimistic about the market [3]. - The construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, in the contraction range, mainly due to the impact of high - temperature and rainy weather. The business activity expectation index was 51.7%, slightly higher than the previous month. Looking forward, with the weakening of the weather impact and the release of policies, the economy may continue to recover, and the manufacturing PMI in September is expected to improve [4].