牛市如何用指标刻画主线与后续空间？

Group 1: Market Insights - The report discusses how to characterize the main line and subsequent space of the bull market using indicators, emphasizing that high trading volume indicates the market is trading the core main line and reflects market divergence [10][11]. - The main line profit effect index has shown significant upward movement recently, with a notable increase of 11% on August 28, 2025, and a total increase of 47% over the current trading cycle [10][11]. - Historical bull markets have phases where focus on the main line occurs, with the head crowding degree indicator reaching the 50% threshold in previous cycles [10][13]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - In July, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises showed a narrowing decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.50%, and cumulative profit for the first seven months was -1.70%, improving from -1.80% [21][23]. - The inventory cycle remains low, with finished goods inventory at 6.67 trillion yuan, and the growth rate of finished goods inventory has shown a downward trend [21][28]. - The profit margin for public utilities has improved slightly, with the profit margin for public utilities at 6.92%, up by 0.13 percentage points from the previous month [28][30]. Group 3: International Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index for July met market expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [44]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025 is 86.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 13.6% [44][46]. Group 4: Industry Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three investment directions: breakthroughs in technology AI led by Deepseek, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the continued rise of undervalued dividends [48]. - The report highlights the importance of the AI industry trend's progress, which is influenced by breakthroughs in both application and consumption sectors [48].