本周原油小幅反弹

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The oil market experienced a slight rebound this week, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices closing at $64.01 and $68.12 per barrel, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.55% and 0.58% from the previous week [1] - OPEC+ has completed four consecutive production increases since May, with a total increase of over 1.2 million barrels per day from May to July, and an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, marking the highest monthly increase since the Saudi price war in 2020 [2] - The IEA and EIA have adjusted their forecasts for global oil supply and demand, with the IEA predicting a supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day for the year, while the EIA forecasts a 2.28 million barrels per day increase [2][3] - The report highlights a significant decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, with a decrease of 2.392 million barrels reported for the week ending August 22 [3] Supply Summary - OPEC+ plans to increase production by an additional 550,000 barrels per day in September, aiming to fully restore the 2.2 million barrels per day of production capacity that was previously cut [2] - The IEA's August report indicates that non-OPEC+ countries are expected to add 1.3 million barrels per day of supply by 2025, primarily from the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Guyana [2] Demand Summary - The IEA has downgraded its demand forecast for emerging markets, particularly for China, Brazil, Egypt, and India, while the EIA has raised its demand forecast for China, Canada, and the U.S. [3] - The IEA's forecast for demand growth in 2025 has been reduced from 700,000 barrels per day to 680,000 barrels per day, marking the lowest growth rate since 2009, excluding the unique macroeconomic events of 2020 [3] Price Support Analysis - The average breakeven price for U.S. oil and gas companies developing new wells is approximately $65 per barrel, with larger companies having a breakeven price around $61 per barrel [4] - The report indicates that 61% of U.S. oil and gas executives believe that if WTI prices remain at $60 per barrel, their companies will slightly reduce production [4]