Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The "anti-involution" in the steel industry promotes high-quality development. In early 2025, national policies clearly stated the anti-involution in the steel industry, continuously regulating crude steel production and promoting the reduction and reorganization of the steel industry. Industry associations encourage enterprises to break free from homogeneous low-price competition through technological innovation and product differentiation [3][65]. - The anti-involution sentiment boosts the prices of finished products. The "anti-involution" boosts market sentiment. Coupled with the relatively healthy fundamentals of the black sector, the supply of coking coal decreased in June due to safety and environmental inspections, leading to a significant increase in coking coal prices and driving up the prices of rebar, hot-rolled coils and other varieties in the black sector [3][20][65]. - Enterprises' profits improve, and production remains at a relatively high level. In 2025, steel enterprises had good overall profitability. As of the end of August, the profitability rate of 247 sample steel enterprises remained above 60%, a significant increase compared to the same period last year. The improvement in profits enhanced the production enthusiasm of steel mills, and the daily average output of hot metal remained at a high level [3][65]. - The increase in the supply side leads to a gradual increase in the inventory pressure of finished products. Entering the traditional consumption off-season in July and August, the high profit level drove up the production enthusiasm of steel mills, and the output of hot metal and finished products remained at a high level. Without a significant increase in the consumption side, the increase in output led to inventory accumulation, and the inventory pressure gradually emerged [3][51][66]. Summary by Directory 2025 Steel Market Operation Review - In the first half of 2025, the prices of black varieties in the steel market were generally weak. In the second quarter, tariff frictions escalated, the macro market sentiment weakened further, and the prices of finished products were continuously under pressure. At the same time, due to the relatively loose supply and demand of carbon elements, prices continued to decline, further weakening the cost support for finished products and driving the price center of steel products to move down continuously [13]. - In mid-to-late June, the coking coal market bottomed out and rebounded. Affected by environmental inspections and safety production requirements, the supply of coal mines in the main producing areas declined, and the supply of carbon elements shrank. Driven by the repair of macro market sentiment and increased downstream purchases, coal mine inventories decreased, leading to an increase in coal prices, which in turn drove up the prices of black series products from their lows. In July, boosted by the "anti-involution" sentiment, coking coal prices continued to strengthen, driving up the overall prices of the black series. In mid-to-late August, as the "anti-involution" sentiment weakened, the prices of finished products fluctuated downward [13]. Steel and Upstream and Downstream "Anti-Involution" Sorting - Since early 2025, the state has clearly stated the anti-involution in the steel industry at the policy level, and industry associations have cooperated to organize meetings and establish self-discipline mechanisms. The core idea is to control production through policy guidance and industry self-discipline, promote the reduction and reorganization of the steel industry, and encourage enterprises to break free from homogeneous low-price competition through technological innovation and product differentiation, ultimately promoting the high-quality development of the steel industry [15]. - A series of "anti-involution" actions have been carried out in the steel industry, including the issuance of policies by relevant ministries and commissions and the organization of meetings by industry associations to address issues such as overcapacity and low-price competition [15][17]. Anti-Involution Sentiment Boosts, Finished Product Prices Rise - The "anti-involution" boosts market sentiment. Coupled with the relatively healthy fundamentals of the black sector and the reduction in coking coal supply due to safety and environmental inspections in June, coking coal prices increased significantly, driving up the prices of rebar, hot-rolled coils and other varieties in the black sector [3][20]. - On the one hand, downstream demand has resilience, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment maintaining growth and steel exports remaining resilient. On the other hand, the rebound in the prices of coke and iron ore at the cost end further pushed up the price center of finished products. In July, the average price of rebar in Shanghai increased by 169 yuan/ton compared to June, and the average price of hot-rolled coils increased by 152 yuan/ton [20]. Enterprises' Profits Improve, Production Remains at a Relatively High Level - In recent years, steel mills have shown greater flexibility in production decision-making, adjusting the production rhythm according to the order structure and profit level, and increasing the output of high-value-added steel products. In 2025, steel enterprises had good overall profitability, and the profitability rate of 247 sample steel enterprises remained above 60% as of the end of August, a significant increase compared to the same period last year [32]. - The improvement in profits enhanced the production enthusiasm of steel mills. The daily average output of hot metal remained at a high level, and the weekly output of major finished products such as rebar and hot-rolled coils remained stable. The overall supply did not decline significantly during the off-season, indicating the strong production resilience of steel mills supported by profits [43]. - The daily consumption of scrap steel remained at a high level, highlighting the strong demand for raw materials in steel production. In 2025, due to the increase in profits, the high operation of hot metal and the output of five major steel products, and the continuous growth of scrap steel daily consumption, enterprises' production enthusiasm was high, the market supply was sufficient, and the overall efficiency of the industry improved significantly [45]. Supply Side Increases, Changes in Finished Product Inventory - As steel mills continued to operate at a high level, the supply of steel products increased significantly. Entering the traditional consumption off-season in July and August, the high profit level drove up the production enthusiasm of steel mills, and the output of hot metal and finished products remained at a high level. Although the demand for steel in infrastructure and manufacturing had resilience, the real estate industry continued to adjust, and the overall growth momentum of steel consumption was limited. The rapid recovery on the supply side led to a gradual increase in inventory pressure [51]. - The social and total inventories of rebar both increased, showing an accumulation trend. The social and total inventories of hot-rolled coils also increased simultaneously, and the overall inventory level of the five major steel products continued to rise [51]. Strategy - It is necessary to focus on the actual implementation of the "anti-involution" in the industry. Industries with substantial implementation are worth looking forward to in the long term [6][67].
专题报告：淡旺季转换之际，成材行情展望
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-31 10:51