高频数据扫描：上游物价渐进改善

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Upstream prices are gradually improving. The production - material price index declined slightly in the week of August 22, but the year - on - year decline since August has narrowed. Steel industry capacity and output will be precisely regulated, which is expected to drive a gradual improvement in PPI and a slow rise in long - bond interest rates [4][13]. - The strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar does not necessarily trigger a more relaxed liquidity supply. If Trump successfully replaces Cook, the proportion of "dovish" Fed governors may increase, leading to a decline in the long - term yield of US Treasury bonds. The strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar is conducive to stabilizing foreign investment, and its stability against the currency basket is conducive to stabilizing foreign trade [4][16]. - The US PCE inflation in July basically met market expectations and may have limited impact on the Fed's interest - rate cut prospects. However, the US trade deficit in July far exceeded expectations, mainly due to a sharp increase in imports, which may lead to intensified inflation and affect the interest - rate cut rhythm [4]. Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - Upstream prices: The production - material price index declined slightly in the week of August 22, with a narrowing year - on - year decline since August. The steel industry's average annual added - value growth target for 2025 - 2026 is 4%. By August 29, the closing price of the coking - coal futures main contract was close to the December 2024 average, while that of the rebar main contract was significantly lower [4][13]. - Exchange rate: After Powell's hint at the global central - bank annual meeting and Trump's move to remove Cook, if Cook is successfully replaced, the long - term yield of US Treasury bonds may decline. The RMB has strengthened against the US dollar, but the RMB exchange - rate index is still not high, which is an ideal state [4][16]. - Inflation and trade: The US PCE inflation in July basically met expectations. The trade deficit far exceeded expectations due to a sharp increase in imports, which may be related to the tariff "grace period" and mild inflation, and may intensify inflation and affect interest - rate cuts [4]. - High - frequency data changes: In the week of August 30, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.78% week - on - week and 27.43% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale - price index increased by 2.54% week - on - week and decreased by 19.19% year - on - year. The prices of Brent and WTI crude - oil futures increased by 1.85% and 1.63% respectively week - on - week. The LME copper and aluminum spot prices increased by 1.13% and 1.52% respectively week - on - week [4][20]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison The report provides multiple charts to show the trend comparison between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between LME copper spot - price year - on - year change and industrial added - value year - on - year change (plus PPI year - on - year change), and the relationship between crude - steel daily - output year - on - year change and industrial added - value year - on - year change [22][33]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe The report presents charts of US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, US first - week unemployment - claim numbers and unemployment rates, US same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year changes, and Chicago Fed financial - condition indexes, as well as the implied prospects of the US Federal Fund futures for interest - rate hikes/cuts and the overnight index swap for the ECB's interest - rate hikes/cuts [88][90][93]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through various charts, such as the seasonal trends of crude - steel (decade - average) daily output, production - material price index, and 30 - major - city commercial - housing transaction area [101]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen The report provides charts of the year - on - year changes in subway passenger traffic in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [158][160][165].